[slg]

>Putin has literally made a career out of calling west's bluffs. Would he call that one?

Well that is the point. As I said the west needs to make it clear that an invasion would lead to war. It can't be a bluff. But we all know the west wasn't willing to end civilization over this so here we are. Seems like Putin is going to keep prodding the west until he finds the line he is convinced we won't let him cross. That line was never going to be Georgia, Crimea, or the whole of Ukraine.

[xorfish]

Don't underestimate Ukraine in this conflict.

The Russian military doesn't have the resources for a prolonged guerilla conflict against a motivated resistance.

With the current actions, the Ukrainian population won't easily forget what Putin has done and even dictatorships need some level of approval from the population.

There is a reasonable chance that Putin excavated his own grave with his reprehensible actions.

[thiagoharry]

A guerilla assumes that Russia occupies Ukraine. I think this is improbable, I do not think that Russia want to deal with guerilla warfare and probable terrorist attacks coming from extremists from there. The east part of Ukraine in Donbass, recognized as independent by them, is precisely the part of Ukraine with more ethnical Russians that is against the Ukrainian government and were de facto independent and more pro-russian since years ago during Ukrainian civil war. From there a guerilla would be improbable. This attacks probably are more to send a message against NATO expansion there and to defend Donbass independence, not an invasion for occupation.