[foogazi]

GP: >> People talking about how NATO "shouldn't expand" (why not, if the nations involved want to join a voluntary pact?)

You: > but do you really not know why Russia doesn't want NATO to expand to Ukraine

Why would Ukraine want to align with NATO instead of the country that just invaded it?

> While I may not agree with the Russians, I can absolutely understand why they think war is justifiable

Why?

> it might be prudent of NATO to avoid expanding or insinuating it might do so, to avoid making things even worse than they've already been

Sounds like appeasement to me

> when it all could've been avoided by a mostly symbolic back off as the Russians demand (symbolic because there was very little hope for Ukraine to actually join NATO in the near future, to my knowledge).

The why go to war over something symbolic?

[brabel]

It's hard to communicate, it seems, when people seem to do all they can to not understand the other side. (talking not only about this exchange, by the way).

Your quotes of me are disingenuous.

OP asked why NATO shouldn't expand. I answered that doing so will surely trigger a war, as Russia made clear already.

> Why would Ukraine want to align with NATO instead of the country that just invaded it?

I suppose you mean "wouldn't", and I would agree that they want to align with NATO as the current government is very anti-Russia (notice that Ukraine goes back and forth on this, it's not always the way it is now). But what a country wants is not always what they can do. I am sure Georgia would love to join NATO too and make sure Russia never invades it again... but is NATO willing to go to war with Russia over Georgia? Or over Ukraine? The answer is no. NATO already said so: they will not support Ukraine militarily if Russia invades.

So the real question is whether it's worth letting Russia invade Ukraine simply because NATO cannot meet the Russian demands to say Ukraine will not join NATO.

> The why go to war over something symbolic?

You must've misread something... NATO meeting the Russian demands would be symbolic in my understanding (again, because NATO didn't have concrete plans to let Ukraine join it... Russia just wants NATO to make that official - a mostly symbolic act). But NATO not meeting this demand will cause a war for sure, which has nothing symbolic about it. Children will die (have you seen the faces of the soldiers on the front line, FFS they are children, 18 yos).

[ivan_gammel]

> The why go to war over something symbolic?

They are not going to war. They just expand their presence on the borders to make a point. If NATO feels menace with those deployments, they are expected to understand that Russia feels the same. If NATO is not making commitment on paper not to expand and to scale down their current presence, Russia will not make commitments to stop those annual military exercises they have been doing for years.

[AutumnCurtain]

Have you rethought these comments at all, Ivan?

[ivan_gammel]

Yes. They remain valid as a way of thought for many Russians before the war and should be kept for history. Hardly anyone in Russia was considering real war as a possibility, so when Putin made the orders it came as a deep shock. Before the recognition of separatist territories, his strategy seemed at least rational if wrong. He could be understood, even if his actions were not approved. Not anymore. I do not know when this transition happened, when the last red line was crossed by him in his mind, but now it is total uncertainty. Whatever he planned with this invasion, his calculations are so obviously mistaken, that it is hard to understand how this decision was made at the first place. It will not help Russia to achieve any long term or short term goals and it will jeopardize his own rule. Now he is certified crazy. And this is scary as shit.

[jacquesm]

Thank you for coming back and adding this. Indeed, it is scary as shit, and because now any kind of trust in whatever Russia says or claims is lost there is absolutely no way to contain this. Russia could join peace negotiations and it wouldn't amount to anything. This does not have a happy ending I'm afraid.

Best of luck. We'll probably all need it.

[AutumnCurtain]

Thank you very much for the perspective, I think people all around the world are shocked at his brazenness and even people who were "right" about his plans are horrified to be so.