Wouldn't it be expected for people in profit and people in loss to converge 50/50 as amount of trading increases? If it was a guranteed profit, everyone would pile in. If it was guaranteed loss, everyone would leave. The middle point represents the fact that no one can truly predict the future price accurately.
Not really, because not all people trade the same amount and not all trading happens equally distributed at all price levels. You can have relatively few winners leave the larger majority holding the bag.
that assumes that the competency of all the participants are relatively similar, and thus, the trades on average net out zero profit for everyone. That's not what i would observe empirically - like intelligence or athletic distributions, the distribution of competency in this arena is probably like a long tail, with a few people making the most profits and a lot of people losing out.
Bitcoin is down 18% on a real dollar 1-year basis, during the most inflationary period since the 80s, and has underperformed the NASDAQ for much of the last 4 years.
- End of 2017, BTC hit 19K. Today, it's 42K. That's 2.2X!
- End of 2017, QQQ hit $150, today it's $345. That's 2.3X.
- End of 2017, TQQQ hit $11. Today its $53. That's 4.8X.