[ipnon]

Wouldn't it be expected for people in profit and people in loss to converge 50/50 as amount of trading increases? If it was a guranteed profit, everyone would pile in. If it was guaranteed loss, everyone would leave. The middle point represents the fact that no one can truly predict the future price accurately.

[jallen_dot_dev]

Not really, because not all people trade the same amount and not all trading happens equally distributed at all price levels. You can have relatively few winners leave the larger majority holding the bag.

[chii]

that assumes that the competency of all the participants are relatively similar, and thus, the trades on average net out zero profit for everyone. That's not what i would observe empirically - like intelligence or athletic distributions, the distribution of competency in this arena is probably like a long tail, with a few people making the most profits and a lot of people losing out.