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by bambax 1590 days ago
> Sometimes, our sense-making machinery has a glitch too. Many years ago, a McKinsey study concluded that nobody in the developing world would buy smartphones because they were too expensive. Based on that study, they held off on launching a smartphone for another three years. Around that time, an anthropologist who had recently returned from Chinese refugee camps saw how people would sacrifice half their disposable income just to own an iPhone. Though Nokia had an internet-enabled phone with a color touchscreen display and a high-resolution camera in 2004, the executives held off on launching a smartphone for another three years. Between the peak of their mobile dominance and their sale of the mobile division in 2013, Nokia’s value fell by almost $250 billion.

The first half of that paragraph is misplaced; "they" int the 3rd sentence doesn't refer to anything, as Nokia is only mentioned later in the paragraph. This would benefit from a bit of proofreading. (Edited; the first version referred incorrectly to the "2nd" sentence instead of the 3rd.

Also:

> I recently had dinner with Peter Thiel (...) the contents of our conversation will remain private

The whole purpose of the article seems to be to brag about having dinner with Mr Thiel.

It doesn't discuss anything else and offers nothing except banalities about the Bible, Jesus (speaking in Parables) and Rene (sic) Girard, a French author who was ridiculed in France for his obsessions and circular thinking, but enjoyed some kind of cult following in the US, apparently.

8 comments

> Around that time, an anthropologist who had recently returned from Chinese refugee camps saw how people would sacrifice half their disposable income just to own an iPhone.

Wait, what Chinese refugee camp? Where? From what war? China hasn't had a mass displacement event since well before the iPhone came out.

The reason I'm harping on this is because the author is committing the exact same sin they're accusing the McKinsey consultants of, a lack of cultural competence and curiosity that would rather have them substitute their stereotyped and prejudiced image of people rather than actual lived experience.

Likely referring to the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake that killed a reported 87,000 people (but likely far higher given what we know about the government of China).
The iPhone wasn't available for sale in China until Oct 2009: https://www.cultofmac.com/510563/today-in-apple-history-ipho...
"Around that time" is referring to 2004.
> Around that time, an anthropologist who had recently returned from Chinese refugee camps saw how people would sacrifice half their disposable income just to own an iPhone.

The original iPhone was released in June 2007. The 2008 Sichuan Earthquake matches up.

You're right of course. The original anecdote makes no sense then.
>It doesn't discuss anything else and offers nothing except banalities about the Bible, Jesus (speaking in Parables) and Rene (sic) Girard, a French author who was ridiculed in France for his obsessions and circular thinking, but enjoyed some kind of cult following in the US, apparently.

Girard was never ridiculed in France (at least, not any more than any other who became a target at this or that point). He remains a very respected figure, and his theories are very deep. That said, they're not suitable for consumption by analytical philosophy types.

Thiel, however, has only ever said trivialities regarding Girard and his theories, that reveal a very shallow understanding (if that), something analogous to "As Einstein said, everything is relative".

There are books about Girard that are pretty funny; one of them is this (published in 2010, while he was still alive):

https://www.editionskime.fr/publications/rene-girard-un-allu...

His fixation is that all of human history can be explained by the fact that people like to copy one another. One of the (many) problems with that theory is that it's turtles all the way down. I don't think Girard can be said to be deep.

>His fixation is that all of human history can be explained by the fact that people like to copy one another.

Well, in the same sense that "Einstein's fixation is that everything in physics can be explained by the speed of light and frames of reference". Or "War and Peace talks about Russia at the time of the Napoleonic wars".

E.g. that "people like to copy one another", is a very crude approximation of "humans being social animals, learning from one another, copying one another, getting entangled in mob behavior, valuing things for social reasons, enforcing laws, rituals, and counter-measures to stop regression to anarchy, mob violence, and social conflict, and so on" -- which in turn is a very crude approximation of the far more detailed, argued, and nuanced treatment of those ideas by Girard as he examines the development of various institutions (religion, morals, governance, etc.

>I don't think Girard can be said to be deep.

The "turtles all the way down" strawman is rather not deep.

Many years ago I was traveling with an Ericsson executive who knew exactly the opposite: Mobile networks and phones were how the developing world would connect to the internet's resources. I'm certain Nokia's leadership knew exactly the same thing. I am familiar enough with Nokia's early smartphones to know they held nothing back, even though, at the time, Series 40 was the mass-market device, Series 60, was high-end. Series 60 ran Symbian, a true smartphone OS with an app runtime, 3rd party SDK, and an app store. Even higher-end Nokia smartphones ran Maemo, a Linux-based smartphone OS that roughly resembled Android.

Nokia failed at smartphones because they were forced to abandon Maemo and Symbian in favor of Microsoft's under-baked smartphone OS and the generally disastrous "leadership" of Stephen Elop, and subsequently being bought by Microsoft to continue to try to make Windows Phone happen at the expense of everything that succeeded at Nokia.

Nokia was already failing prior to MS coming into the picture.
If Nokia was standing on a burning platform, Stephen Elop hosed them down with gasoline.
Yeah, Ericsson had a pretty slick touchscreen phone before the iPhone. The iPhone simply blew everything out of the water on both hardware and software.
>The second sentence of that paragraph is misplaced; "they" doesn't refer to anything, as Nokia is only mentioned later in the paragraph. This would benefit from a bit of proofreading.

I was confused by what you meant until I realized you were referring to the third sentence, not the second sentence. [Insert sentence here warding off replies about irony.]

Ah sorry yes you're right! I edited my comment accordingly (but mentioned the edit so as to try to not confuse people more).
> McKinsey study concluded that nobody in the developing world would buy smartphones because they were too expensive

Just goes to show what all those fancy consultancies are worth. Same applies to Gartner and their "predictions".

When are people finally going to stop for the scam of the big five brands?

Consultancies provide a valuable service of blame laundering. Obviously, this isn’t the exclusive use of consultancies, but it does allow management to save face all the time.
big five?
I think parent is referring to the cohort of large management consulting firms (McKinsey, Bain, et al.).
FAANG? Facebook Amazon apple Netflix Google

Not sure why Microsoft always gets left out...

No, consultancies.
Girard was a Stanford professor. His Uncommon Knowledge episode from the Hoover Institution is quite interesting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNkSBy5wWDk

I do agree though, the article is pretty lame.

Girard was also elected to the Académie Française…
The irony of writing problems from an article that concludes by offering writing advice!