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by vixen99
1596 days ago
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Which data sources have persuaded you that the realistic and likely increases of 3 or 5 degrees are more probable? "In 1979, the Charney Report from the US National Academy of Sciences suggested that ECS was likely somewhere between 1.5C and 4.5C per doubling of CO2. Nearly 40 years later, the best estimate of sensitivity is largely the same. This has led some to question why there has been so little progress on estimating climate sensitivity." Is this quote above now no longer true? If not, please provide a link. |
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More concretely, have a look at the latest IPCC report [1], page SPM-16. Three of the five scenarios include temperature rises from 3 to 5 °C. Based on the last decade, the world has not reduced total CO2 emissions at all (not even slowed), despite its knowledge about climate change. Therefore, I have reason to believe that the three bad scenarios (intermediate to high CO2 emission), are more likely to happen than scenarios covering halted or little CO2 emission.
[1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...