[disruptalot]

> Moderate inflation is a feature not a bug. It drives investment and increases the money supply.

It fundamentally isn't as simple as inflation good, no inflation bad.

It's all fine and dandy until central banks lose control and inflation causes catastrophic issues. Not to mention that it's most definitely a bug for people that intend to save for basics like housing on smaller incomes that can't efficiently invest in assets. Inflation tends to benefit those closest to the money first, common assets second then everything else by which point a new cycle has already begun.

BTC & ETH aren't deflationary as much as they are predictable in their money supply. You could say that they elongate the time preference of investments and that isn't only a bad thing.

[cletus]

> It's all fine and dandy until central banks lose control and inflation causes catastrophic issues.

Genuinely curious: what issues are you specifically referring to?

> BTC & ETH aren't deflationary as much as they are predictable in their money supply.

See this is another crypto myth. So yes Bitcoin is limited to ~21M coins theoretically but we don't actually know what the limit is because wallets have gotten lost and will continue to be lost. Second, a lot of crypto people don't seem to understand the impact of derivatives to effectively increase the supply and thus bring about all the problems crypto advocates say crypto doesn't have.

I mean look at GameStop. There are a fixed number of shares on the market (buybacks and issuing new shares notwithstanding). Yet derivatives created a situation where there simply weren't enough outstanding shares to cover short interest. Taken to its extreme this would mean those shares would have infinite value.

What really undid the subprime mortgage market (other than the fraudulent ratings for which no one went to jail and they absolutely should have) was all the derivatives on top of actual mortgages. I forget the exact number but it was something like a factor of 10-20 (meaning $10-20 in derivatives for each $1 of a mortgage).

The exact same thing can (and will) happen to crypto. That's why fixed supply is a myth.

[disruptalot]

> Genuinely curious: what issues are you specifically referring to?

When central bank/governments lose control or get greedy you end up with hyperinflation. Should I go into examples of how hyperinflation has been catastrophic?

> we don't actually know what the limit is because wallets have gotten lost and will continue to be lost.

We know the limit but we don't know how much is being circulated. Central bank money is the opposite, you know roughly how much is being circulated (if you're government is nice to you) and there is no limit.

> The impact of derivatives to effectively increase the supply

Derivates don't increase the money supply itself, they play tricks using the underlying asset. If you hold the Bitcoin asset yourself, someone playing with derivatives means very little to you. Though if you have your balance on an exchange, that's on you.

On the other hand, in the current system, you have no access to the underlying asset. You don't own 0.00001% of the central bank. In other words, everything you are using _is_ a derivative. Even something as simple as keeping your money in the bank means you are using a derivative. That being the option of the bank to hold no reserves for the money you deposited.

[cletus]

> When central bank/governments lose control or get greedy you end up with hyperinflation.

Instead you have hyperdeflation. Wonderful.

> Derivates don't increase the money supply itself, they play tricks using the underlying asset.

That's why I said "effectively".

> If you hold the Bitcoin asset yourself, someone playing with derivatives means very little to you.

That's complete nonsense. There are countless examples where derivatives have affected the price of the underlying asset. I gave several. Derivatives drove up the price of GameStop. The subprime mortgage collapse devastated house prices even for people who didn't hold a mortgage at all.

> On the other hand, in the current system, you have no access to the underlying asset.

Let's be honest: you don't have access or any control over the underlying crypto asset either. 0.00002% is really 0%. Bitcoin is concentrated in very few hands [1]. The vast majority of BTC is held and not traded [2]. Lots of people are holding ("hodling") BTC on the expectation that the price will continue to rise.

That's... a bubble. Eventually that sentiment will turn and some large unaccountable players will simply dump it and get out.

> In other words, everything you are using _is_ a derivative.

No, it isn't. The cash itself is the asset. What gives it value is that it is backed by [insert government here].

> Even something as simple as keeping your money in the bank means you are using a derivative.

No, you're trusting your money to a custodian that is overseen by the government.

> That being the option of the bank to hold no reserves for the money you deposited.

Again, wrong. Banks are required to hold a portion of their assets and loans in hard currency. This is the fractional reserve system.

A lot of former gold bugs love crypto. They too are under a lot of misconceptions (eg the USD has never once been 100% backed by gold). Additionally, fiat currencies are a response to the problems created by trying to peg assets to other assets yet we're going to learn those same lessons with so-called "stablecoins".

[1]: https://fortune.com/2021/12/20/001-percent-bitcoin-holders-c....

[2]: https://news.bitcoin.com/only-3-5-million-bitcoin-is-traded-...

[disruptalot]

> Instead you have hyperdeflation. Wonderful.

How and where? At worst, it's gradual and predictable. Where is the central planning of the bitcoin supply? Hyperinflation on the other hand is as a direct result of the control of a few in the matters of an economy. Not the same.

> Let's be honest: you don't have access or any control over the underlying crypto asset either. 0.00002% is really 0%.

I don't know how to response to this 0.00002% != 0% just like $20k != $0. There is nothing wrong with saving. Whether it's speculating or not is a completely different matter. Let's not pretend no other assets are speculated on especially given the degree of novelty.

You are ranting about derivatives being bad, which I agree with. I'm giving you an option that decreases the effect and increases the options for opting out of derivatives. One of the reason derivates and bubbles are so strong is precisely because of inflation and central planned economy. Meme stocks sparked primarily as a result of short time preference and centrally planned economy.

> Again, wrong. Banks are required to hold a portion of their assets and loans in hard currency. This is the fractional reserve system.

Here's your "fractional reserve system":

> As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions. [0]

> backed by [insert government here]. > custodian that is overseen by the government.

I'm sure the banks and governments are very friendly and wouldn't ever have incentives that are to the detriment of others.

[0] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm....