[bigtones]

Their huge China derived revenue is an increasing problem for Apple from a company stance perspective. They have to increasingly walk a tightrope between servicing that market, kowtowing to the Chinese government, and upholding the values of a California based US Company.

[thewarrior]

This is the case for all companies in the world eventually. China will overtake the US economy in the next 5 years.

[KKKKkkkk1]

Paul Samuelson the Nobel Memorial Prize laureate repeatedly predicted the USSR economy will overtake the US within X years. Predictions are hard!

[opportune]

The USSR was closeish to the US population. China has 4x the US population. That roughly means they only need to reach 1/4 the living standards of the US to have a larger economy. Seems pretty doable.

[nicbou]

China also has a massive, modern industry as far as I can tell.

People bought far fewer goods from the USSR than we do from China.

[in3d]

The current prediction in terms of GDP is 8 years: https://www.voanews.com/amp/chinas-economy-could-overtake-us...

[zepto]

There is no serious analysis that presents this scenario with any certainty.

[thewarrior]

Let’s not miss the forest for the trees. China will continue to grow and get very close to the size of the American economy.

China is already the worlds largest economy in terms of raw output (PPP terms).

China is already the worlds largest consumer market.

There’s a reasonable chance it exceeds USA in nominal GDP it if it grows at 5+% till 2030. This year they grew at 8.5 %

[seanmcdirmid]

> China will continue to grow and get very close to the size of the American economy.

Given that they are hitting a demographic cliff in a few years, it is not so guaranteed anymore. It will be an interesting next couple of decades for China.

> This year they grew at 8.5 %

A lot of that is real estate, the same real estate that speculators are banking on will sell to poor farmers for a million dollars when they re-locate to cities (and the same farmers who aren't having that many kids anymore...).

[thewarrior]

Sure and that slows GDP growth by 40-50%. They’re still growing by a lot. It just moves the date by a few years.

Demographic doom is frequently cited for China but I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics. Demographics can be topped up using immigration. Without immigration the US would also be in demographic decline.

[seanmcdirmid]

> They’re still growing by a lot. It just moves the date by a few years.

The problem is that their average age moves up, and productivity decreases as people hit or near retirement. Unless China starts opening up to immigration (not impossible), they are going to be Japan without being rich yet.

> I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics.

Europe has immigration. China does not. If China is willing to embrace e.g. the African aspiring immigrants who have come to Guangzhou in recent years, things could change quickly, but I'm not really seeing. Japan did not, and that's why you can get a house for a reasonable price in Tokyo these days.

[zepto]

> Demographics can be topped up using immigration. Without immigration the US would also be in demographic decline.

There is a reason people move to the US. Good luck to the CCP attempting to reproduce that.

[sharikous]

Western/Northern Europe have somewhat better demographics, thanks to immigration. Eastern Europe is in a deep demographic pit but is still recovering from poverty so it has a lot of room for economic growth still (and buoys up Western Europe).

Doom of Southern Europe, however, is talked about quite a lot.

[zepto]

> There’s a reasonable chance it exceeds USA in nominal GDP it if it grows at 5+% till 2030.

The US GDP grew 5.7% last year.

> China is already the worlds largest consumer market.

No it isn’t.

[tonyedgecombe]

>The US GDP grew 5.7% last year.

To be fair that's only because it bounced back from the covid impacts in the previous year.It had been hovering around the 2.5% mark for the previous decade.

On the other hand no economist believes the figures that come out of China, they are far too consistent.

[nojito]

>China will overtake the US economy in the next 5 years.

Not with their current demographic trends.

[Notanothertoo]

While I don't disagree so you have specific things to read on this topic?

[thewarrior]

Here you go https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55454146

[sneak]

It seems that everyone forgets that approximately 100% of Apple's manufacturing is in China.

There are some scattered final assembly here and there, like screwing together the Mac Pro in Texas, and I think the iPhone production in India is non-trivial, but for all intents and purposes the vast, vast majority of Apple's production happens in China, performed by Chinese nationals, who are themselves subject to Chinese law, in facilities wholly inside of Chinese jurisdiction.

It doesn't matter much if Apple sells a single unit in China, from a "kowtowing to the Chinese government" perspective: China controls Apple fully as without China's consent and permission, Apple cannot produce anything for sale in significant quantity.

[broknbottle]

Last time I checked TSMC is in Taiwan and Taiwan is not a part of China..

[unix_fan]

TSMC only makes one out of multiple components. I don't see how this is a counterpoint to his comment.