[thewarrior]

Let’s not miss the forest for the trees. China will continue to grow and get very close to the size of the American economy.

China is already the worlds largest economy in terms of raw output (PPP terms).

China is already the worlds largest consumer market.

There’s a reasonable chance it exceeds USA in nominal GDP it if it grows at 5+% till 2030. This year they grew at 8.5 %

[seanmcdirmid]

> China will continue to grow and get very close to the size of the American economy.

Given that they are hitting a demographic cliff in a few years, it is not so guaranteed anymore. It will be an interesting next couple of decades for China.

> This year they grew at 8.5 %

A lot of that is real estate, the same real estate that speculators are banking on will sell to poor farmers for a million dollars when they re-locate to cities (and the same farmers who aren't having that many kids anymore...).

[thewarrior]

Sure and that slows GDP growth by 40-50%. They’re still growing by a lot. It just moves the date by a few years.

Demographic doom is frequently cited for China but I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics. Demographics can be topped up using immigration. Without immigration the US would also be in demographic decline.

[seanmcdirmid]

> They’re still growing by a lot. It just moves the date by a few years.

The problem is that their average age moves up, and productivity decreases as people hit or near retirement. Unless China starts opening up to immigration (not impossible), they are going to be Japan without being rich yet.

> I rarely hear about the doom of Europe which has worse demographics.

Europe has immigration. China does not. If China is willing to embrace e.g. the African aspiring immigrants who have come to Guangzhou in recent years, things could change quickly, but I'm not really seeing. Japan did not, and that's why you can get a house for a reasonable price in Tokyo these days.

[pedrosorio]

I find exactly one house (a 1BR house ?) under 100 million JPY (866k USD) in the outskirts of Tokyo.

Is there a better website to search for these reasonably priced houses?

[0] https://housingjapan.com/buy/search/#c={%22p[h]%22:%22100000...

[seanmcdirmid]

This might be outdated given that it is from 2020:

https://resources.realestate.co.jp/news/how-much-does-it-cos...

I only mention it because someone brought it up a few days ago when there was a debate on why real estate prices were so high in the USA.

[bemmu]

I live in Japan and this is the site I use to browse for houses: https://www.athome.co.jp/kodate/chuko/tokyo/map/list/?LAT=35...

On the left in price range you can select max 10,000万円 to see houses under 100 million. Zoom out on the map to start seeing some dots.

[zepto]

> Demographics can be topped up using immigration. Without immigration the US would also be in demographic decline.

There is a reason people move to the US. Good luck to the CCP attempting to reproduce that.

[kamaal]

Most people from third world countries who move to the USA do so because of the infrastructure and quality of life, not because they read 'Bill of Rights'.

Also machines are coming for your jobs, you wont need that many people anyway.

[zepto]

Who said anything about the third world?

Highly qualified workers from Europe still come to the US too.

[sharikous]

Western/Northern Europe have somewhat better demographics, thanks to immigration. Eastern Europe is in a deep demographic pit but is still recovering from poverty so it has a lot of room for economic growth still (and buoys up Western Europe).

Doom of Southern Europe, however, is talked about quite a lot.

[zepto]

> There’s a reasonable chance it exceeds USA in nominal GDP it if it grows at 5+% till 2030.

The US GDP grew 5.7% last year.

> China is already the worlds largest consumer market.

No it isn’t.

[tonyedgecombe]

>The US GDP grew 5.7% last year.

To be fair that's only because it bounced back from the covid impacts in the previous year.It had been hovering around the 2.5% mark for the previous decade.

On the other hand no economist believes the figures that come out of China, they are far too consistent.