[pydry]

Remember when the US promised to leave Libya alone if they denuclearized and then Khadaffi got a rusty bayonet jammed up his back side?

That one is why Putin wanted anybody except Hillary to be President.

Or when U.S. Secretary of State James Baker famously promised that NATO would “not expand one inch eastward” of Germany?

The US developed collective amnesia over that.

[reducesuffering]

> Or when U.S. Secretary of State James Baker famously promised that NATO would “not expand one inch eastward” of Germany?

You've fallen for Russian disinformation. This lie keeps getting spread around and corrected. Baker mentioned this to Gorbachev in preliminary talks for the treaty after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as a "what if? what concessions would the USSR then make?" It was then immediately struck down as an option by other US bureaucrats, never made it into the treaty, and Gorbachev never even mentioned it again until 2008 when he said US never promised this but expanding NATO into Baltics and such was against the "spirit" of the talks. One person, even a Secretary of State, spitballing ideas about what a treaty would look like is not even close to any sort of agreement between entire superpowers.

[pydry]

It happened multiple times. It is not a lie, no matter how much the US state department tries to double down on the amnesia.

>The former idea about “closer to the Soviet borders” is written down not in treaties but in multiple memoranda of conversation between the Soviets and the highest-level Western interlocutors (Genscher, Kohl, Baker, Gates, Bush, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Major, Woerner, and others) offering assurances throughout 1990 and into 1991 about protecting Soviet security interests and including the USSR in new European security structures. The two issues were related but not the same. Subsequent analysis sometimes conflated the two and argued that the discussion did not involve all of Europe. The documents published below show clearly that it did.

https://mltoday.com/new-document-us-promised-not-to-expand-n...

Russia has publicly expressed regret that it did not get the wording in a treaty though it holds to the idea that assurances made outside of a legal framework are not worthless, whereas to an American legalistic mind it appears, they are.

Probably it would have made no difference anyway. There's no independent court of international law to adjudicate. Treaties and memoranda arent all that different in the end.

It could be partly cultural. I've noticed when dealing with Americans the idea that you cant expect people to keep their word if it's not explicitly written into a contract is quite common. It's also idiosyncratically American - I havent noticed this word-is-worthless/contracts-sacrosanct "if we take you for a ride it's your fault" attitude elsewhere.

[reducesuffering]

> Russia has publicly expressed regret that it did not get the wording in a treaty though it holds to the idea that assurances made outside of a legal framework are not worthless, whereas to an American legalistic mind it appears, they are.

Russia isn't even holding to an actual legal treaty about respecting the sovereign territorial integrity of Ukraine and you're exclusively pissed at Americans for assurances outside of a legal framework?

[dragonwriter]

> you're exclusively pissed at Americans for assurances outside of a legal framework

...that didn't happen anyway and are propaganda that exists only to support the Russia violation of their actual treaty with Ukraine.

[pydry]

The expansion of NATO came first in 97- at a point when Russia was militarily at its weakest, and a drunk American puppet was in charge.

Crimea would likely still belong to Ukraine if NATO hadnt done that - eastern europe being a buffer being the presumption built into the negotiations. There was some trust before. There is none now.

As it was, the pushback on NATO against the vulnerable, much invaded western border once Russia recovered economic and military strength was inevitable.

As inevitable as the NATO invasion and occupation of Afghanistan when in 2001 the Taliban dared to request evidence and a trial while Americans bayed for blood.

[felipelemos]

> Crimea would likely still belong to Ukraine if NATO hadnt done that - [...]

Shifting the blame to a third party is a very biased way of see this.

[pydry]

I wasnt ascribing blame or praise - you must have inferred that. This is simply a reflection of the geopolitical reality.

[dragonwriter]

> Russia has publicly expressed regret that it did not get the wording in a treaty

At the time in question, Russia wasn't a sovereign subject of international law, but a subordinate entity within the USSR. Mikhail Gorbachev, who was a somewhat important figure in the USSR government at the time, and likely to know, has explicitly stated that such assurances we're not given, nor was the matter negotiated [0] (it is true that the possibility or it being an item on the table seems to have been raised as an inducement to the USSR to participate in resolution of German reunification, but an offer that an issue can be in the table to get someone to the table is not a commitment, even informal, on the anything besides allowing discussion should it be raised.)

[0] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-...

[pydry]

>Gorbachev: “I do think that they could have done more. Much of what has since happened has been directly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union. We cannot blame anyone for the dissolution of the Soviet Union. However, many people in the West were secretly rubbing their hands and felt something like a flush of victory – including those who had promised us: ‘We will not move one centimetre further East.’”

Brookings is about as useful for proving a point on Russia as RT. Might as well quote Trump on who won the last election.

[nekcihc]

The main issue here is to remember, that promises has to be given to US, to other countries - especially neighbours and to various clans of Libya and citizens of Libya - especially to young and poor hot-heads who are quick to blame their government and Leader. Then and only then you can have guarantee that you, being as a ruler of Libya are not getting rusty trombone... erm, that might be more pleasant, but apparently it was rusty pipe, that was performed on Kadaffi.

Looking how Putin is performing in Russia, it seems more than clear that he will get his rusty pipe in his anus, because the path of getting it is way too similar... Kadaffi got his rusty pipe, after his Navalny-level opponents were forced out and killed and the ones that came next were not into sophiscated and educated arguments, but went straight in with the pipe... and surprise surprise - they were new generation of Libyans, born in Lkadaffi Libya and bred by Khadaffi.

U.S. Secretary of State James Baker did not had authority to promise that NATO would “not expand one inch eastward” of Germany. Also in a real nonimaginary world, such "promises" and talks has to be realized as written agreements on paper. Completely different from what Russia signed in a very real Budapest Memorandum.

[pydry]

Khadaffi was killed by American backed rebels supported by NATO. NATO might as well have pulled the trigger.

The main issue is that the US state department (led by Hillary at the time) made it abundantly clear to every tinpot dictator in the world with that stunt that the two worst things they can do are A) denuclearize and B) trust America's word.

North Korea took note of what happened in Libya and as a result Kim Jong Un got a nice little tour of Trump's presidential car.

The word of the US is trash. The security guarantees it gives are trash. They've made it clear that they respect power but everything else gets lip service.