[dekhn]

at this point I want better public health evidence from CDC etc that "the vaccine may have kept you out of the ICU". I need better quantification of the various risks before continuing to live an extremely inconvenient lifestyle to ostensibly save other's lives.

[ceejayoz]

This information is very easy to find. See the first chart here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi...

There's a clear difference in hospitalization and death between the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. You don't have to take the CDC's word for it - other countries can see the same thing in their numbers.

Calling getting the vaccine "an extremely inconvenient lifestyle" is silly.

[gallamine]

Honest question, but don't we still lack the denominator of the ratio:

  (people that have covid and end up in the hospital) / (those who have covid)

?

Instead, we're looking at the ratio:

  (vaccinated people who have covid and go to the hospital) / (unvaccinated people who have covid and go to the hospital)

But, those are different types of information.

[dekhn]

yes, exactly. I am getitng tired of people citing CDC facts that don't answer (quantitatively) which of any of actions are actually useful.

Note that many people who end up the hospital either didn't know they were infected, or got infected there. And probably many of the people with COVID who go to the hospital don't actually need hospital levels of treatment. We have a tendency to overtreat with technology.

[dekhn]

At this point I don't really think that pointing at CDC public health releases is going to convince a scientist like me. Also, the data you pointed at doesn't directly answer what I said (nearly all data is ambiguous, there are a ton of confounders, etc).

Getting a vaccine isnt inconvenient, except that it was: I spent an entire week unable to use my left arm and feeling very sick (and my doctor didn't care). But also there's a ton of other issues, like my kids not being able to go to school, stores closed, having to greatly limit travel, etc.

[ceejayoz]

Again:

> You don't have to take the CDC's word for it - other countries can see the same thing in their numbers.

Any way you slice and dice the data comes up with the same answer; vaccination reduces hospitalization and death.

[dekhn]

I don't disagree with the directionality you describe but look at the case rates and hospitizalization numbers- even the most highly vaccinated areas of the country are still heavily impacted. Omicron changed everything and our reporting hasn't caught up.

The best way to think about CDC press releases is that they not intended to be read by scientists. They are intended to guide good behavior and may not be 100% accurate in terms of medical/scientific knowledge.

[ceejayoz]

Thus far, every indication we have is that there's a successful decoupling of cases and hospitalization/death. Omicron's been in South Africa long enough for the lagging indicators of hospitalization/death. They remain low.

Good examples here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2022/omicr...

Screenshotted here due to paywall: https://imgur.com/a/gk73qDy

[dekhn]

what you're describing is mostly intrinsic to omicron, not vaccines.

[gitgrump]

> at this point I want better public health evidence from CDC

> At this point I don't really think that pointing at CDC public health releases is going to convince a scientist like me.

I just watched you move the goal posts in realtime.

[dekhn]

this is a forum, not a logician's debate club

[gitgrump]

And we're having a discussion. You asked for proof, then said it wasn't good enough. So why ask for it in the first place?

[wombatpm]

Here is where the details of COVID matter. Is it just a respiratory disease where once you are past the acute phase you are fine, or is it a multisystem disease where the long term consequences (kidney, heart, brain, blood clotting issues) we be on the rise for years and decades to come? The long term consequences (WHICH NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE) are frightening.

[nathanaldensr]

Substitute COVID with the shots and your statement is just as relevant. Both a virus and a pharmaceutical can cause bad things to happen.

[wombatpm]

With the exception that contracting COVID has known, immediate bad outcomes.