[bluGill]

There is the volume vs cost problem. You could put a fab together for under a million - but to do so your would trade labor for automation. A simple chip that a large fab can make for a profit (amortized) selling for 5 cents each would cost you more than $50,000 each to make. If you only need one chip that price is worth it, but most users of a chip are thinking a lot more and it typically turns out that getting a large fab to do your part is not only cheaper, but faster. Still you can do the highly manual process of making a chip if that is what you want to pay for.

[jfoutz]

It's a little weird to me. I see in the comments 50 cent chips going for 75 dollars. The old process chips _seem_ diy able - http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ Obviously it would take me, like, a year or two to get anything to work. But I'd guess there are folks out there that could spin up far far faster.

I guess I don't understand why there isn't much, or any, labor intensive fabs combining on line, with a plan to automate away parts of the line as money comes in.

I suppose, the chemicals are so toxic, and the skills are so rare you can't get any production for months, even at the small scale. and perhaps even at the crazy high prices it's still not worth taking on the risk.

I know I don't know what I'm talking about. But golly it does _seem_ like I could make chips in a couple of years, and there's bound to be thousands of people out there that could do it in weeks. It seems like the kind of thing you could scale out with more labor and training, and improve process with automation as you go.

edit

Most trying to understand. Is it too toxic? are the skills so rare? Is the risk that high? Is that what's keeping low end chips from using a more expensive process even though they command higher prices - it's not enough to offset?

[11thEarlOfMar]

The $0.50 for $75 is a short term situation that will resolve once the fab's pipelines get filled again. We buy >1,000,000 per year and had no trouble getting them until the fab shut down. We'll be fine soon (looks like they've opened production again).

The primary costs of starting up a fab are 1. facilities, 2. equipment. Facility per square foot is likely the most expensive you'll find due to the appurtenant systems required for air flow and purity, a variety of gas handling systems, ridiculous electrical power systems, possibly gas plant systems, water purification and then treatment systems for both air and fluids exiting the plant. Some truly scary toxins are used and produced and have to be contained or captured and neutralized.

In terms of equipment, you'll need at least one of each of 40 types. Lowest cost is about $500,000. Highest is likely $25,000,000 (at the geometry you're talking about). Average in the area of $3,000,000 - $5,000,000. You'll need a cadre of engineers and scientists to keep it all running, and 2-3 years from breaking ground to producing product. If you did buy one of each tool type, you'd have most of them sitting around doing nothing most of the time, since the process times vary dramatically. In reality, you're looking at $500,000,000 minimum to build a fab that can produce $0.47 chips. Seriously, you don't want to do that.

[jfoutz]

Thank you. That makes a lot of sense.

I had some misconceptions around how versitile auto manufacturers are. I'd sort of assumed they'd be very good at turning a low volume, low quality process into a high volume, high quality process. I'd also sort of assumed they'd have a ton of resources on hand, like space and power, the and the ability to build a lot of the required infrastructure.

I suppose they are far far more specialized and reallocating resources like that is the kind of thing you'd have to do right away, make a big commitment, that's basically pointless.

[bluGill]

They are experts in iron, and processes, but they still would have a lot to learn, and it is unlikely they could ever do better than TMSC who isn't stupid about manufacturing. Maybe they could find something, but so can the others.

The commitment just to play is very large, it probably isn't worth it. Even if you had proof of this would happen in 2015 and so enough time to build I doubt any would build s fab (though they would buy chips to store)

[jfoutz]

Yup. makes sense.

Wasn't thinking 7nm cutting edge, more along the lines of op amps or maybe a 70's era microcontroller - I had the impression lots of chips are used, and some are real fancy, but some are just old and, since they didn't order them, aren't being made.

I'd thought if someone was willing to roll back the clock 30 or 40 years - that tech might be cheaper and more realistic to bring in house. But yeah, there are already plenty of people that do that well, so it's really just an expensive boondoggle.

Definitely not something you can just put together in a few months.

[bluGill]

Sure old process can be done,but the labor is high enough that you need to sell for more than 75. For simple stuff you still need well over 1000 each to make it worth it.. that is simple stuff. I know a few years back the government was paying around 60000 for Pentium level complexity chips (this was for a classified program so I doubt I was given full details)