[reducesuffering]

That may have something to do with the 175k Russian troop posture along Ukraine's borders and US/Russian leaders already telegraphing how they'll respond so there aren't any surprises for either of them.

Putin says sign treaties preventing Ukraine and Georgia from ever joining NATO, and withdraw NATO troops from all former Soviet countries or it's their fault Russia is "forced" to annex Ukraine. (impossible; since Russia annexes either way. this is just realpolitik. If NATO doesn't comply, Russia has an "excuse" to annex. If NATO does comply, it's just a temporary measure until some manufactured issue in Ukraine gives Russia a reason to annex again anyway like Crimea. Either way Russia will make a Russian-friendly Ukrainian state, but if NATO help retreats it's just easier, might as well ask.)

Biden says there won't be US troops in Ukraine but the economic consequences will be immensely painful.

Therefore, policy pundits say Russia could annex by Jan 2022.

[unmole]

> Therefore, policy pundits say Russia could annex by Jan 2022.

Is there a market where one can bet against this prediction?

[reducesuffering]

Not that I know of. But I wouldn't bet on any EV from betting against black swans long term. Perhaps you should investigate a bit more.

“What is happening now, the tension that is developing in Europe, is their fault,” Mr. Putin told a Russian Defense Ministry board meeting. “At every step, Russia was forced to somehow respond, at every step the situation was constantly getting worse, worse, worse. And today we are in a situation where we are forced to decide something.”

Also see: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527?...