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by reducesuffering 1635 days ago
Not that I know of. But I wouldn't bet on any EV from betting against black swans long term. Perhaps you should investigate a bit more.

“What is happening now, the tension that is developing in Europe, is their fault,” Mr. Putin told a Russian Defense Ministry board meeting. “At every step, Russia was forced to somehow respond, at every step the situation was constantly getting worse, worse, worse. And today we are in a situation where we are forced to decide something.”

Also see: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527?...