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by Syonyk 1662 days ago
> I'm trying to imagine a future, 30-50 years from now...

I can only hope it's a future in which we collectively realized that smartphones, smartwatches, smartglasses, smartypantstoilets, smartgloves, smartdiapers, etc, were a bloody well idiotic idea and that we've come to our collective senses and realized that they were never what they promised to be, but had, within a few years of launch, turned into just more ways of monopolizing attention for a quick venture capital and IPO payout. Perhaps not the hardware manufacturers, but at least the way the hardware was used.

More realistically, those are likely to be dim memories of the past, back before capitalism ran the planet into the ground, and took most of our technology stacks with it. Modern tech stacks are complexity, piled on complexity, built on a few stacks of complexity, built on broken hardware that's overly complex in an attempt to gain the performance required to run the teetering stacks on top of it (all the uarch vulns, DDR4 Rowhammer is a nice touch on top, etc).

You'll note that neither of those paths involve us running around with the FitBit 2050 gathering... whatever it is it thinks it ought to gather. The way things are going, probably nothing more useful than Covid tracking stuff. "You were in proximity with 1.7 potential individuals who may have been infected with Covid, please quarantine for the next two weeks. confetti"

It would be nice if we had some of our current technology, that open data standards had taken root and we could decide how we wanted to use the stuff, pay appropriately and be paid appropriately for our devices, attention, etc. But that's just not the way things are going, and I fear that's not the way things are going to go, under any reasonable future. There is far, far too much money and "Well, but, see, if you destroy the market you can monopolize it!" money floating around for the near to moderate future to see that future happen. I mean, a bunch of our current companies are literally based on "We will use the venture capital money to undercut everyone else, drive them out of business, and then be the monopoly!" Uber, Lyft, [insert the food delivery service of the week here], the various scooter services, and the list goes on. They're running into the brick wall of, "Wait... what do you mean, we're not going to accomplish that? You mean we have to turn a profit?" I've talked to people who have started taking taxis again, because at least they'll show up, unlike the Sharing Economy Rideshare App of The Future services that weren't remotely pandemic-proof.

We'll see. But I would predict that fitness trackers, in 20 years, are a big pile of ewaste, "... ugh, yeah, you know, it's not worth the hassle to get that data out...," and broken promises. And hopefully not being actively worn by then.

3 comments

Spot on points here. I love it how everyone i know with a fitness tracker always talks about there 10k steps for a few months and it fades off into oblivion. Like taking steps matters when your holding your phone in envey of whatever the alrogithm feeds you.

Sport will not perpetuate human existence. It was originally created to keep humans in shape for hard the graft of living off the land. Just look at any aboriginal culture, they knew they had done enough steps today when they had enough food.

The fitness tracker was created to make you feel better about being taken for a ride (in life). For those who needs affirmation from their peers that they arnt wasting there life away working for a whatever click bait porn floats onto there device next.

20 yrs from now? we already have big piles of ewaste everywhere.

I once interviewed for a startup making bluetooth diapers for old folks ~2013.

My recommended fitness tracker is to turn off all your devices and go outside into nature at every opportunity. Find a company who will let you be a remote developer and start living for today.*

Fitness trackers are hardly idiotic for those of us who are at least semi serious about endurance sports. Of course you can train and race without one but you'll be less efficient. If you go to any major race just about everyone who podiums will be wearing a fitness tracker. That's because they actually work.
I'm not even competitive, but my tracker devices are hugely motivational for me. And having useful metrics like heart rate as a tachometer for my body is immensely valuable for all sorts of activities.

I'm healthier and more active now because of them, and they've gotten me more in tune with my body, not less.

I agree. Simply measuring something brings a lot of motivation on its own.

Over the years, I've found that simply forcing myself every morning to step on the weight scale is a keystone habit in keeping my weight in check.

I do this with other things which I consider important as well, like tracking the finances.

The brands and models they are wearing are different than the rest of us.

Most of the industry subsides on the aspirational user who doesn't make any lifestyle change and stops wearing the device after a year or less. The vague idea that it'll find some magic ingredient for improving your sleep or exercise.

Even Garmin is getting in on it trying to sell activity trackers for parents to put on their kids. When it's parents who are in full control of their kids' time and activity.

Of course it has a use for people training but that's a small minority of customers.

Here's the copy on a recent device:

"Meet our most advanced fitness & health tracker with tools like an on-wrist ECG app for heart health,* EDA Scan app for stress management and more. Get a 6-month membership of Fitbit Premium™** and optimize your routine with Daily Readiness Score.◆‡ Add a 6-month Premium membership for advanced insights & tools to improve your health"

Guaranteed most customers would benefit from finding exercise they enjoy, drinking less alcohol and worrying less about their sleep rather than being presented with Scores and Goals whose novelty and thus salience will quickly wear off. But that isn't something that can be sold so...

I've seen the race winners wearing the same Garmin, Suunto, and Coros device models as the rest of us. Hardly anyone who actually competes uses Fitbit, it's kind of a toy.
Sounds like we're vigorously agreeing. If you Google "fitness trackers", you might get a Garmin and after a few minutes I found a Coros. But it's mostly Apple, Fitbit, Xiaomi, Withings, Garmin's more fashionable/smartwatch line. If that's what the tech mags are reviewing (for they come up top on search, not fitness websites) that's where the money is.
So, uh, how much less efficient, exactly? 5%? 10%? 90%? How is this efficiency even measured? You improve twice as slow, or the end results are twice as bad, or?..
I'm afraid I can't quantify it for you, but subjectively I'm completely confident that using a high end fitness tracker for training and racing makes me faster in triathlons. Other than that I'm not interested in trying to measure efficiency with versus without the device as that would be a total waste of my time.
This could be pretty easily quantified if you look at how world records have progressed over the years.

Better fitness technology leads to faster times across the board.

Technology has also improved in many other areas: exercise physiology knowledge, nutrition, aerodynamics, lab testing, PEDs, bouncy shoes, etc. It's tough to isolate how much of the total improvement was caused by fitness trackers.
All pro endurance sports could end this instant, forever, and humanity would be fine. Humanity will not be fine if some of the points raised in that comment keep getting ignored.
You underestimate humanity. It will be fine.
You are not making the distinction between objective value of fitness trackers (they can measure speed, pace, heart rate, SpO2...), which allows for actionable recourse (I am getting worse/stagnating/improving in this particular area), and sociological/psychological value they are providing.

I think it'd be hard to say measuring something in order to improve on it is useless: and most of the smart devices allow one to extract exactly that value.

Now, I wouldn't be the one to discredit social and psychological value for any smart devices, because they can be very real too, but it's definitely obvious that we should look for alternative solutions to those problems at the same time.