[bradleyjg]

I always wonder if the Republicans nominated him in 1996 because they thought he could win or just as honorary thing given they probably couldn’t win with anyone.

It felt like one of the most lopsided elections of my lifetime (I was too young to pay attention to politics when Dukakis ran.)

[Lazare]

Parties (generally, at least in the modern era) can only nominate people who run, and people run based on their estimation of the odds, the competition, and their estimation of their ability to wait until the next cycle.

Somewhat famously, in the 1992 cycle the Democrats were going up against an incumbent president who had just overseen a successful war, and was enjoying 89%(!) approval ratings. Some of the highest profile candidates (such as Mario Cuomo) sat it out, leaving the field to minor players including the then little-known governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton. In the event, Bush crumbled and Clinton won, in large part due to a very brief recession. July 1990 marked the end of the longest peacetime expansion in US history, and by March 1991 the recession officially ended...but when voters went to the polls in 1992, they still punished the incumbent.

(I'm just old enough to remember a political joke from back then. It went something like: President Bush is walking along a beach when he finds an old lamp. He picks it up, rubs it, and a genie comes out and grants him three wishes. Bush asks for the Persian Gulf conflict to be a smashing success, the economy to recover, and some other policy success I can't quite recall after all these years. The genie agrees and vanishes. One of his advisors looks worried. "Are you sure you shouldn't have wished to win the election?" Bush confidently replies "Are you kidding? After all those successes, how could I lose?")

1996 was, again, a race against an incumbent, but consider: Clinton was vastly less popular than Bush had been, and he had some obvious weaknesses as a candidate. It was by no means absurd to think a respected, straight shooting war hero could come out ahead against the tarnished, draft dodging Bill Clinton. And of course, as with 1992, there was every chance that by the time people went to vote, the situation might look very different.

So...I think Dole (and the many others who competed for the nomination) did so because they thought they could win, and they weren't wrong. The immediately prior election was proof of that! That being said, it was always going to be a challenge, and I think some strong candidates did decide to wait for the hopefully friendlier 2020 cycle. On the other hand, Dole was running out of time. So was Dole running because he thought he could win, or because he thought this was his last chance? Both, probably. And then he was nominated as the strongest candidate running. (It's not like a party is ever going to survey the field and decide just not to contest a presidential election, regardless of the odds.)

[CommieBobDole]

I don't think it was as lopsided as you think - Dole got 40.7% of the popular vote compared to Clinton's 49.7%, and he flipped five states in the electoral college.

Even though the results were never really in doubt, that's not too bad of a showing against an incumbent president.

[sverhagen]

With the two parties' loyal voters locked in already, and these races pretty much being about the swing voters in the middle, this sounds like a landslide, in American politics.

[tharne]

It would be a landslide by today's standards, but those kinds of margins were pretty common in the 80's and 90's. You had a lot more swing voters and people who would split their tickets so you had bigger margins while also having less certainly about the outcome prior to the actual vote. People forget that in the 80's and 90's a democrat could win West Virginia and Kentucky and a republican could win places like California and New York.

[bradleyjg]

Even back then, that was a very healthy margin of victory. Reagan beat Carter by not much more than that.

[runevault]

I wouldn't be surprised if the latter. I don't know that the Rs had anyone who could compete with Clinton on charisma which is always dangerous. Hell when Bush Sr ran he didn't realize what he was going up against until it was too late.

[rootusrootus]

> when Bush Sr ran he didn't realize what he was going up against until it was too late

I still remember watching that moment in the town hall when it hit me that he was going to win, and probably by a good margin. He was smooooth.

Coincidentally, I also remember watching Hillary Clinton do the dance thing during a debate with Trump and that's the moment I decided she might actually lose despite everyone suggesting it was going to be a blowout. Told my wife "If she loses, it will be because of that attitude." She definitely does not have Bill's charisma.

[runevault]

As someone who grew up in Arkansas, even as a kid we all knew the rest of the country had no idea what was coming. A Democrat who managed to win the governorship in Arkansas is, uh, impressive.

[hereforphone]

I'd guess inside politics + no one obviously better to run at the time. IMO the same reason Hillary was put up ("her turn" + who else?)

[Jansen312]

Hard to say. Considering that Biden got way more votes than Obama, I realized it was Obama riding Biden coat-tails all along. Biden was then the gifted orator it seems. Bill was lucky the economy did well I guess. I think Mick's shot in 2012 was also quite lopsided.

[SV_BubbleTime]

> Hard to say. Considering that Biden got way more votes than Obama, I realized it was Obama riding Biden coat-tails all along.

Can you please elaborate? I don’t remember anyone giving 1/2 a thought about Biden in 2008/2012. I am under such a different impression that I am left wondering if this was supposed to be sarcasm.

[bellyfullofbac]

I think you're drawing the wrong conclusions from some numbers. Biden most likely got a lot of votes because of voter turnout, with his voters desperately wanting to get rid of Trump.

[spfzero]

Are you talking about absolute vote count, or margin of victory? Obama's margin of victory in the electoral college was much greater in 2008 and 2012 vs. Biden's. Obama's popular vote margin was greater in 2008 and roughly equal in 2012, vs. Biden's.