| I sold my BTC from 2011 in the (what felt "big" at the time) run-up end of 2017, before it crashed in 2018. Me at the time: "nailed it. knew this was hype and surfed it beautifully. looking forward to never thinking about crypto again." Me now: "blew it. didn't even realize what 'mainstream' could mean." What this taught me is that hype can come in waves, and the next one might be bigger and the timing unknown. This article is great because it outlines all the different reasons why the hype of crypto has kept growing. It has so much controversy, is pretty generic, and nobody can really make sense of it. So it just keeps getting bigger because it is driving everyone nuts until they either: A) get it out of their system and move on because honestly, dollars work B) get rich off it and stop caring because they're rich now (probably converted a good amount to USD ;) C) don't get rich off it but could have / wished they had and spend time hating it until something distracts them towards a healthier life D) use it for practical purposes (aka crime) and then eventually get caught and have to wait out a sentence until they can get back in In my opinion, it is the very fact that it has defied so many predictions (while confirming others) that both explains its persistence, and leads to the author wanting to encore his prior post in the context of the _current_ wave of crypto hype. |
Exponentials are a helluva drug. Even here on HN people don't feel exponents, power laws, and related growth in their bones. Whether it's Moore's law or experience cost curves or smartphone adoption... It's entirely possible for something to double or more in a year.
The other day I noticed Tesla's forecast for manufacturing cars in 2021, I think. At a quick estimate, they're going to make more cars this year than they've made total in their entire history up to somewhere around 2020. Think about that: all the Teslas you've seen driving around already, well, next year, there's going to be twice as many, and then the year after that...? No wonder the Tesla stock price has shot up so much the past few years, as it becomes clear "they're gonna make it", and competitors like Ford are crashing their own electric truck programs or like Toyota are now out doing outrageous things like propagandizing about how awesome gasoline engines are & how actually the future is hydrogen.