[gwern]

> Me now: "blew it. didn't even realize what 'mainstream' could mean."

Exponentials are a helluva drug. Even here on HN people don't feel exponents, power laws, and related growth in their bones. Whether it's Moore's law or experience cost curves or smartphone adoption... It's entirely possible for something to double or more in a year.

The other day I noticed Tesla's forecast for manufacturing cars in 2021, I think. At a quick estimate, they're going to make more cars this year than they've made total in their entire history up to somewhere around 2020. Think about that: all the Teslas you've seen driving around already, well, next year, there's going to be twice as many, and then the year after that...? No wonder the Tesla stock price has shot up so much the past few years, as it becomes clear "they're gonna make it", and competitors like Ford are crashing their own electric truck programs or like Toyota are now out doing outrageous things like propagandizing about how awesome gasoline engines are & how actually the future is hydrogen.

[cmrdporcupine]

Unfortunately doubling your production capacity doesn't equal doubling your sales. Tesla can only do that for so many years before they're like GM or Ford: selling a commodity item, competing with others selling similar items, with decreasing margins, and shareholders demanding dividends and employees forming unions.