[epistasis]

Agreed, so far this looks like it's a bull-whip effect in many many supply chains.

For example, lumber is still priced fairly high, but far far down from its peak level. And if this podcast is to be believed (and I think it is), mere lack of metal trusses for home building is holding back a lot of builders from continuing with their projects, meaning a ton of lumber is being held in places that it's not usually held, which will lead to further bull whip price swings:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/stinson-d...

[lumost]

Counter point:

Inflation due to large monetary stimulus may appear through a bullwhip affect as demand eventually stresses fixed-capacity capital intensive industries. Once these industries are strained higher costs may radiate outwards.

[dls2016]

Isn’t this what we’re seeing? Semiconductors strained leading to rising auto prices? (For example.)

What evidence is there that it will radiate outwards at a rate significantly above the Fed’s target for an extended period of time?

[lumost]

I don't know of a good measure for how long it takes price signals to be transmitted across the economy - particularly not inflationary price signals. I'd be willing to bet that the speed at which supply reacts to changing price signals depends highly on the current expectations for how long price changes will persist and how much of the price change is inflationary.

Offhand however, the top capital constrained industries that I can think of (in rough order) include.

1. Semi 2. Housing 3. Automotive/heavy manufacturing 4. Energy

Which are all experiencing shortages/rapid price increases. If the hypothesis holds we would see price increases in other fields which depend on the above. If the supply disruption/demand disruption hypothesis holds then we should see a normalization of prices in the above industries.

[01100011]

Evidence? This is economics we're talking about. I think we can make some guesses, but the system is too complex to make reliable predictions.

A single advancement in worker automation could easily provide enough productivity gains to offset wage growth. A single plant disease or new political treaty could massively effect food and or energy costs. The system is chaotic.

[wbsss4412]

It’s probably a little of a, a little of b.

It is still less of a school to the economy than the beginning of the pandemic was. Threading the needle to manage this period has to be extremely difficult for policy makers.

[Clubber]

Wasn't our stimulus minuscule compared to other countries? I believe most countries paid at least partial wages of employees during lockdown while the US got $2000 for going on 2 years of lockdown now.

[mister_tee]

I've heard that on the contrary, the US had some of the highest covid stimulus payments in the world across different metrics (% of GDP, $ per capita, etc.).

That's when considering "stimulus" as broader than the unconditional (but means-tested) direct payments--colloquially "stimmy checks." Following is from a quick search and to the best of my knowledge; I'm in a high cost of living area and fortunate to have kept a job past the individual cutoff for stimulus checks:

Direct stimulus was $3200 to eligible individuals across three checks. Some amount of that was banked for dependents too.

Increased refundable child tax credit was increased from $2000 to either $3000 or $3600 per child per year and the Democrats are trying to persist that in the build back better act.

The US also did increased unemployment -- $300 a week in extended unemployment benefits. Which totals $15,600 a year on top of existing amounts. The first $10k in unemployment was made tax-free. I've heard e.g. Canada had a high percentage of salary backed by the government in unemployment, however there was a total dollar cap that was fairly low.

US had PPP loans that lefties (disclaimer: I'm one) on social media (disclaimer: I'm not) complained about going to businesses, but very likely let some business keep people on the payroll in the first place as intended.

Mortgage forbearance, eviction moratoriums.

Freezing of payments and interest accrual on student loans that is still going on, and when (if?) it restarts will have stopped the accrual of interest for about two years.