[dls2016]

Isn’t this what we’re seeing? Semiconductors strained leading to rising auto prices? (For example.)

What evidence is there that it will radiate outwards at a rate significantly above the Fed’s target for an extended period of time?

[lumost]

I don't know of a good measure for how long it takes price signals to be transmitted across the economy - particularly not inflationary price signals. I'd be willing to bet that the speed at which supply reacts to changing price signals depends highly on the current expectations for how long price changes will persist and how much of the price change is inflationary.

Offhand however, the top capital constrained industries that I can think of (in rough order) include.

1. Semi 2. Housing 3. Automotive/heavy manufacturing 4. Energy

Which are all experiencing shortages/rapid price increases. If the hypothesis holds we would see price increases in other fields which depend on the above. If the supply disruption/demand disruption hypothesis holds then we should see a normalization of prices in the above industries.

[01100011]

Evidence? This is economics we're talking about. I think we can make some guesses, but the system is too complex to make reliable predictions.

A single advancement in worker automation could easily provide enough productivity gains to offset wage growth. A single plant disease or new political treaty could massively effect food and or energy costs. The system is chaotic.