[formerly_proven]

A charitable interpretation of GP would be that he referred to ending of restrictions (masks, testing, papers please, lockdowns etc.) after a vaccine becomes widely available. These hopes have certainly been raised by politicians in late 2020 and early 2021 ("just have to get herd immunity through the vaccine and we're done"[1]). However, the reality is that e.g. in Germany case numbers and incidence numbers are reaching new all-time-highs every day now despite 70-75 % of all people being vaccinated.

These hopes were probably based on experiences with "normal" vaccines, which are apt to eradicate diseases through sterile immunity (though there are a bunch of exceptions to this, it's not like we're getting rid of the flu and some other stuff by vaccinations [2]). However, we since learned that a vaccine providing sterile immunity against COVID-19 seems to be off the table (as none of them are), so herd immunity against COVID-19 will likely never be a thing and eradicating COVID-19 is just not possible.

[1] Herd immunity was THE talking point in early 2021 in Germany. Also, remember a few countries trying to get herd immunity by intentionally letting the virus spread (great britain cough cough)?

[2] Sterile immunity seems to be difficult with respiratory diseases (flu, covid, cold, pertussis come to mind). Naively I'd guess that's because the critters have some time to multiply on the surface of the airways and be infectious before the immune system gets a chance to nuke 'em. If that's the explanation though I'm kinda wondering why the herd immunity theory was so common, so it's probably more complicated than that.

[Sohcahtoa82]

> However, the reality is that e.g. in Germany case numbers and incidence numbers are reaching new all-time-highs every day now despite 70-75 % of all people being vaccinated.

COVID cases are nearing all-time highs, but COVID deaths remain significantly lower than before. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data?country=~DEU

[formerly_proven]

Which is great, but we're still seeing a large influx to ICUs which will cause problems allocating ICU beds shortly (unless the trend reverses). To get that trend reversal high incidence districts are getting more restrictions again.

Ironically we also had a reduction in ICU capacity during COVID because working conditions didn't improve so people reasonably resigned instead of being continually exploited. There has also been a huge increase in hostility towards nurses, doctors and medical personnel in general (mostly driven by the small but aggressive anti-vaxx "community"), which certainly doesn't help retain people.

[ifyoubuildit]

> we're still seeing a large influx to ICUs

Is this true? I've heard claims in both directions but seen no sources for either.

> mostly driven by the small but aggressive anti-vaxx "community

Same question as above. There's a massive push to fire all the essential workers that took the brunt of the pandemic early on if they happen to believe the growing body of evidence showing that they don't need the vaccine if they've already recovered.

That certainly doesn't help retain people either.

[formerly_proven]

> Is this true? I've heard claims in both directions but seen no sources for either.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-hospitals-reach-critical-pande...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/germany?view=resource-use&tab...

https://www.thelocal.de/20211108/german-states-bring-in-toug...

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-german-health-chiefs-call-for-st...

https://thegermanyeye.com/hospitals%3A-the-intensive-care-un...

...

[ifyoubuildit]

Thanks for the links. I get a strong sense from these sources that cases are ticking up in Germany and government is considering more restrictions. I get less strong of a sense that ICUs are primarily filling with severe covid patients. Seems reasonable that if cases are going up, hospital admission (including ICU beds) would go up, but its hard to conclusively validate that from these.

[formerly_proven]

Maybe the second deep link isn't working correctly, but look at the ICU beds used for COVID-19 patients graph. Also the first link. Also from yesterday: "Meanwhile, German authorities issued threats of a new lockdown, while a top virologist called for immediate action in the face of overburdened hospitals. ... Several hospitals have said in recent days that they are again working at their limits and have ICUs so full of COVID-19 patients that they cannot admit new patients at the moment. Charite said Tuesday it had to cancel planned surgeries due to the number of staff members caring for people with COVID-19. Authorities have said most of latest patients are unvaccinated."

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-france-tightens-vac...

For every English article mentioning this situation, there are 100 in German.

[angelzen]

> we're still seeing a large influx to ICUs

The summer waves clobbered various hospital systems in the US on a region by region basis. Winter is likely to be worse. For example, right now Minneapolis is under heavy load, ICUs at >95% across the board. https://covidestim.org concurs, the Midwest is undergoing a wave.

https://datacentral.kitsapsun.com/covid-19-hospital-capacity...

[ifyoubuildit]

Thanks for the link. I'm not sure if it's showing a large influx due to covid though. For example, the top row in your second link shows 98% beds full, but n/a for covid patients. The second row says 75% ICU beds full, but only 14 positive for covid in the 7 day avg, and its not clear what of those are ICU patients.

It also isn't clear if these are patients in hospital for covid or they just happen to have covid (click on the links in the column headers to see the inclusion criteria).

[angelzen]

Agreed, it's not a perfect resource. The other tool I know of is https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/minnesota, but its resolution is only state level, can't dig in at county or hospital level. Between 30% covid ICU at state level and red hospitals concentrated in Minneapolis, I'm making a guess that it's probably a covid wave hitting Minneapolis.