That doesn't really follow. Companies are run by people, and people have a bit of a history of doing unwise things, often repeatedly.
I would suspect that it probably offers some reduction in casual piracy around release time (as compared to a game with no DRM that you can install anywhere you want as many times as you want with no need to work around anything), though that's probably hard to measure since there's no control group for AAA titles - most of them have some sort of DRM.
The downside is it probably causes significant damage to customer goodwill and willingness to buy future titles, but from the companies' perspective, that's both really hard to measure and it applies to financial results for future quarters, not this quarter, so it might as well not exist.
As phrased, that's a weak argument. Whoever is calling the shots will have some bias and weigh different conceivable outcomes in a subjective manner that an outside observer may consider unsound. I mean, "publishers and developers of AAA titles" also somehow brought us the disastrous releases of No Man's Sky or Cyberpunk 2077. Or any of the PR disasters of $random_AAA_game.
I agree that it's overwhelmingly likely that someone ran the numbers about using DRM at these companies. But it's not unlikely that they over- or under-estimated certain factors. They will have more information than we do, but certainly not perfect information (see also above).
> I agree that it's overwhelmingly likely that someone ran the numbers about using DRM at these companies.
I wouldn't even go that far. It's very rare for anybody to run the numbers. Humans are too lazy. At most they'll eyeball it. Unless somebody requires hard numbers and they start digging up your process so that it's easier to actually do it than to fake it, no "running the numbers" will happen.
I'd go one further (in the other direction). If someone "ran the numbers", I'm quite sure they would have made them public. Because no consumer wants DRM (some are ambivalent, some hate it, but no one is like "oh, thank goodness, DRM"), and the inclusion of DRM by other companies does not threaten your market share, a company has nothing to lose, and only to gain (good will) if they were to release those figures and explain to their customers with cold hard data why DRM is included.
None have done so. Ergo, I am quite sure no one has "run the numbers"; they have, as mentioned, eyeballed them and used them to justify their own biases, as humans are wont to do. And either do not have enough of an analysis to release, or realize it is so easy to poke holes in that they shouldn't.
It’s not that simple because there’s no objective way to get a number for the most important question: how many people would have bought if they couldn’t pirate it? The publishers have quoted estimates which basically assume 100% conversion and I’d be quite surprised if there weren’t senior managers who wholeheartedly believed that because if your job amounts to “sell more” that’s a very tempting way to say that not hitting your targets wasn’t your fault. This is especially what you tell politicians when saying you need police investigations into pirating and various legal protections, too.
These numbers are, of course, wildly optimistic but it’s harder to say exactly how far off they are.
I never said it was simple. Your example is exactly the sort of thing I was referencing when I said "or realize it is so easy to poke holes in that they shouldn't". Because, obviously, assuming every IP on a torrent swarm (or whatever) is a lost sale is fallacious.
Do you want to risk your job by saying DRM isn't worth it? If you report to the board, do you think the shareholders think it's meaningless? If you report up, do you think your bosses want to stick their necks out?
Fundamentally, they're spending other people's money as insurance to avoid losing their job following a flop that can be spun as due to piracy.
I would suspect that it probably offers some reduction in casual piracy around release time (as compared to a game with no DRM that you can install anywhere you want as many times as you want with no need to work around anything), though that's probably hard to measure since there's no control group for AAA titles - most of them have some sort of DRM.
The downside is it probably causes significant damage to customer goodwill and willingness to buy future titles, but from the companies' perspective, that's both really hard to measure and it applies to financial results for future quarters, not this quarter, so it might as well not exist.