[MauranKilom]

As phrased, that's a weak argument. Whoever is calling the shots will have some bias and weigh different conceivable outcomes in a subjective manner that an outside observer may consider unsound. I mean, "publishers and developers of AAA titles" also somehow brought us the disastrous releases of No Man's Sky or Cyberpunk 2077. Or any of the PR disasters of $random_AAA_game.

I agree that it's overwhelmingly likely that someone ran the numbers about using DRM at these companies. But it's not unlikely that they over- or under-estimated certain factors. They will have more information than we do, but certainly not perfect information (see also above).

[tialaramex]

> I agree that it's overwhelmingly likely that someone ran the numbers about using DRM at these companies.

I wouldn't even go that far. It's very rare for anybody to run the numbers. Humans are too lazy. At most they'll eyeball it. Unless somebody requires hard numbers and they start digging up your process so that it's easier to actually do it than to fake it, no "running the numbers" will happen.

[lostcolony]

I'd go one further (in the other direction). If someone "ran the numbers", I'm quite sure they would have made them public. Because no consumer wants DRM (some are ambivalent, some hate it, but no one is like "oh, thank goodness, DRM"), and the inclusion of DRM by other companies does not threaten your market share, a company has nothing to lose, and only to gain (good will) if they were to release those figures and explain to their customers with cold hard data why DRM is included.

None have done so. Ergo, I am quite sure no one has "run the numbers"; they have, as mentioned, eyeballed them and used them to justify their own biases, as humans are wont to do. And either do not have enough of an analysis to release, or realize it is so easy to poke holes in that they shouldn't.

[acdha]

It’s not that simple because there’s no objective way to get a number for the most important question: how many people would have bought if they couldn’t pirate it? The publishers have quoted estimates which basically assume 100% conversion and I’d be quite surprised if there weren’t senior managers who wholeheartedly believed that because if your job amounts to “sell more” that’s a very tempting way to say that not hitting your targets wasn’t your fault. This is especially what you tell politicians when saying you need police investigations into pirating and various legal protections, too.

These numbers are, of course, wildly optimistic but it’s harder to say exactly how far off they are.

[lostcolony]

I never said it was simple. Your example is exactly the sort of thing I was referencing when I said "or realize it is so easy to poke holes in that they shouldn't". Because, obviously, assuming every IP on a torrent swarm (or whatever) is a lost sale is fallacious.