[dmitrij]

Yet, the latest data out of the UK (COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 42, Page 13) [1] shows that the double-vaccinated are around TWICE as likely to catch COVID-19

I hope you don't work in programming or data analytics

[rbut]

I should have clarified in ages 30+ where COVID has more serious effects on a persons health.

Ref. 2nd-last and last columns of Table 2 on Page 13.

[jstanley]

Why?

If the answer is "of course there are more cases in the vaccinated, because more people are vaccinated", then see the table at the top of page 13, specifically the last 2 columns showing cases per 100,000 population. For age range 30-39 and above, the rates per population in the vaccinated are higher than the unvaccinated.

[dmitrij]

Cause, if you write "twice as likely" you will have to measure against vaccincation rates. If 1000 people are vaccinated, and 10 get infected, versus 10 unvaccinated with 1 infection: who is more likely?

[rbut]

The rates per 100,000 already account for this. Refer to the last 2 columns of Table 2.

[dmitrij]

Reacted to that here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28968555

[jstanley]

In the hypothetical you gave, the unvaccinated is more likely (1/10 versus 1/100).

Compare that to the data from the UK vaccine surveillance report, and you'll see the opposite is true in reality (for age ranges 30-39 and above).

For example, for age range 30-39, between week 38 and 41 2021, there were 956.7 cases reported per 100,000 among the vaccinated, and 751.1 per 100,000 among the unvaccinated.

[dmitrij]

I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure.

Anyway: in Germany the numbers are: 4 times more probable for the unvaccinated. I all depends on how people protect themselves, and that is the reason for vaccination passes: less infections, much less symptoms, much much less hospitalisations, almost no deaths in otherwise healthy people under 80 = no lockdowns.

[timthorn]

The commentary in the report states:

"The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns."

[jstanley]

> I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure.

That is exactly how they are separated. What else would "Rates among persons vaccinated with 2 doses (per 100,000)" and "Rates among persons not vaccinated (per 100,000)" mean?

Evidently the vaccines in Germany are working more effectively. That's good news!