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by jstanley 1697 days ago
Why?

If the answer is "of course there are more cases in the vaccinated, because more people are vaccinated", then see the table at the top of page 13, specifically the last 2 columns showing cases per 100,000 population. For age range 30-39 and above, the rates per population in the vaccinated are higher than the unvaccinated.
1 comments
dmitrij 1697 days ago
Cause, if you write "twice as likely" you will have to measure against vaccincation rates. If 1000 people are vaccinated, and 10 get infected, versus 10 unvaccinated with 1 infection: who is more likely?
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rbut 1697 days ago
The rates per 100,000 already account for this. Refer to the last 2 columns of Table 2.
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dmitrij 1697 days ago
Reacted to that here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28968555
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jstanley 1697 days ago
In the hypothetical you gave, the unvaccinated is more likely (1/10 versus 1/100).

Compare that to the data from the UK vaccine surveillance report, and you'll see the opposite is true in reality (for age ranges 30-39 and above).

For example, for age range 30-39, between week 38 and 41 2021, there were 956.7 cases reported per 100,000 among the vaccinated, and 751.1 per 100,000 among the unvaccinated.

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dmitrij 1697 days ago
I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure.

Anyway: in Germany the numbers are: 4 times more probable for the unvaccinated. I all depends on how people protect themselves, and that is the reason for vaccination passes: less infections, much less symptoms, much much less hospitalisations, almost no deaths in otherwise healthy people under 80 = no lockdowns.

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timthorn 1697 days ago
The commentary in the report states:

"The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns."

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jstanley 1697 days ago
> I would like to argue that point by saying these 100,000 are not separated in 100,000 vaccinated and 100,000 unvaccinated, but I am not sure.

That is exactly how they are separated. What else would "Rates among persons vaccinated with 2 doses (per 100,000)" and "Rates among persons not vaccinated (per 100,000)" mean?

Evidently the vaccines in Germany are working more effectively. That's good news!

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