| > China is almost ready to be able to take over Taiwan by force I keep seeing this argument. Let me explain why Taiwan will be free from China's attack for the next 30-50 years (long enough for Xi JinPing to expire) - US protection. If there's one thing both parties in US agrees on, it's against China. Biden just emphatically committed protection for Taiwan and peace in the south east Asia. There are many US warships sailing up and down Taiwan straits. There are many military deals and cooperations with Taiwan. TSMC is a critical part of the world's electronic supply chain. Taiwan is a critical part of the island chain strategy to contain China, since it acts as an unsinkable carrier against China. - China's military is only starting up. It doesn't even have capability to produce its own jet engines or carriers. Its strength lies in the large # of soldiers, which have to be transported. And its large # of ships, which are mostly coast guard/civilian level, and can be sank relatively easily. China's military is about 3-4 generations behind US, and currently is no match for the 10X power from US and its allies - United democracies. US and its many allies are now coordinating naval exercises in the Region. Japan. Australia. India. UK, France, and Germany now have warships in the region as well. South Korea and Taiwan are now increasing its military defenses. These firepowers are 90% of the world's military right now. - Taiwan as a fortified island. Fortified islands are hard to take, as evident in the modern war histories. There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea. And landing only on a few spots. Especially if the island is armed with the latest war technologies from US, and has the missile capability to strike Beijing, or the three gorges dam which will then wipe out millions of Chinese. Taiwan is now producing domestic submarines, long range missiles, and ship missiles. You'll want to remember that Taiwan has very sophisticated electronic capabilities, so the arms it is starting to produce will be very good. - China only gets one shot at attacking. After which, it will get economically sanctioned into oblivion by the world economies. Because otherwise Japan, South Korea, and other island nations near China can be attacked with similar attempts as well. Since China mainly imports most of its resources, and is export focused, it will sank into a deep economic depression filled with local riots. 以前大陆民众被灌输的是“血浓于水”的观念，其实并没有了解李登辉以来台湾的真实变化，等到两岸口岸开放，大家可以自由往来的时候，现实的观感和预期落差很大，自然产生了矛盾。从台湾人的观点来看，大陆的提升对他们产生了威胁，态度发生改变，加上过去三十年来的灌输，对中国大陆的认同感低落和仇视也是什么出乎意料的事。台湾俨然成为美国的战略桥头堡，整个局势到如今无可挽回。 |
Between Hong Kong and the Ukraine those democracies have shown little willingness for action. TSMC may be Taiwans trick to change that but with all these Fabs outside Taiwan who knows if that will remain the case.
> There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea.
Thyphoons don't come out of nowhere and there are usually at most a couple per year.
> And landing only on a few spots.
Could you expand on that? Almost the entire west coast is flat with normal beaches that don't seem particular incessible.
I really hope that Taiwan will remain independent, but I don't think relying on Taiwan's defenses or western military support will guarantee that. The economic argument is a better one - there is a lot of chinese investment around the world that they probably don't want to risk and the world is (slowly) starting to realize that it might be a good idea to have manufacturing capacity outside of china.