[account42]

> United democracies.

Between Hong Kong and the Ukraine those democracies have shown little willingness for action. TSMC may be Taiwans trick to change that but with all these Fabs outside Taiwan who knows if that will remain the case.

> There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea.

Thyphoons don't come out of nowhere and there are usually at most a couple per year.

> And landing only on a few spots.

Could you expand on that? Almost the entire west coast is flat with normal beaches that don't seem particular incessible.

I really hope that Taiwan will remain independent, but I don't think relying on Taiwan's defenses or western military support will guarantee that. The economic argument is a better one - there is a lot of chinese investment around the world that they probably don't want to risk and the world is (slowly) starting to realize that it might be a good idea to have manufacturing capacity outside of china.

[tonypace]

Large areas of the west coast facing China are reclaimed land filled with very narrow roads and aquaculture ponds. Think of the bocage country in Normandy and then fill all the central fields with water. There are really only four coastal areas with the roads needed to move an army off the beach at speed.