These numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories.
I expect that around 900k Teslas will be produced and sold in 2021. The new factories easily bring that up to something around 1.8m-2m in 2022.
At present, Toyota produces something on the order of 10m gasoline vehicles per year, and roughly zero EVs.
I'm not even a layman in this area but I think a lot of the vertical integration for Tesla is purely the result of them being on the flame front of growth in new technological domains. An automaker creating new ASICs and new batteries is atypical, but they are in a much better position to both understand the demand and absorb the risk. Early automakers were in the same position, but eventually the worst ideas were filtered out and industry was able to develop around each of these areas until they could compete favorably with internally developed products.
Musk's approach for both Tesla and SpaceX seem to be a very effective to effectively push into a new domain if you have the money and the guts to try. It will be interesting to watch how they evolve over time.
The argument about Tesla being to small to matter is dwindling fast. Elon has publicly stated a goal of a yearly production run rate of 20 million before 2030.
And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :)
That's very impressive indeed and if they can keep growing like this few more years they will definitely have more revenue than any other car company and might be top 1 by cars produced in less than a decade.
I wonder how it will impact their data collection for self driving.
There's many people here who hate on Tesla, but when seeing YouTube videos of Tesla owners posting footage of self-driving I'm constantly amazed and perplexed how far they have come and how intelligent the car appears to be. There's obviously edge cases where it fails and will be hard to iron out, but it definitely doesn't seem impossible based on countless of videos I have seen. It's amazing and I don't understand how anyone can reject this as a major advance in technology and where humanity will eventually arrive.
But will they? All major car manufacturers bringing in more and more EVs each year and give another 2-5 years and it's all we are going to see. Now why on earth would I buy Tesla, if I could buy Audi or Merc instead?
VW expects 50% of cars sold to be electric by 2030, Ford expects 40% to be electric by 2030 and they say that they can't go much faster. Other's manufacturers forecasts are more dire. I'm afraid that it could be too little too late.
I think the roadmap to 2030 is fine: the infrastructure will take time to build and only the richest countries will be able to run majority of EVs on roads by then, unless they become super cheap. Even in the US, it will take ages for EVs to overtake CE because an average person can't afford EVs and will continue to drive their petrol cars for some years.
Established players rarely grow quarterly sales(in units) by 70% in one year on top of 40% growth previous year, with expected almost doubling next year.
Average price per vehicle is much higher than other brands. In terms of revenue in dollars, It seems they are on track to surpass Nissan next year, no?
You're cherry-picking data to make Tesla's numbers and potential look worse than they actually are.
The first two quarters are much slower for car sales; for example in 2020, Tesla shipped 178k units in Q1+Q2 and 319k units in Q3+Q4.
Tesla had sales of 31.5B in 2020, and have 73% growth between Q3 2020 and 2021, which indicates they could hit 50B in 2021, and could hit close to 90B in 2022 if they continue the same YoY growth. Nissan is stagnant. It's reasonable to assume that Tesla is on track to surpass Nissan next year (2022).
I expect that around 900k Teslas will be produced and sold in 2021. The new factories easily bring that up to something around 1.8m-2m in 2022.
At present, Toyota produces something on the order of 10m gasoline vehicles per year, and roughly zero EVs.