[maxharris]

These numbers do not include Giga Texas or Giga Berlin, both of which are nearing completion. Each of these factories are estimated to ramp to 500k vehicles/year in the first phase (going far higher in the years to follow). Giga Texas alone has around 8 million square feet of factory space, whereas GM has around 33.9 million square feet factory space, dedicated purely to ICE vehicle production, in its 10 US factories.

I expect that around 900k Teslas will be produced and sold in 2021. The new factories easily bring that up to something around 1.8m-2m in 2022.

At present, Toyota produces something on the order of 10m gasoline vehicles per year, and roughly zero EVs.

[jcims]

I'm not even a layman in this area but I think a lot of the vertical integration for Tesla is purely the result of them being on the flame front of growth in new technological domains. An automaker creating new ASICs and new batteries is atypical, but they are in a much better position to both understand the demand and absorb the risk. Early automakers were in the same position, but eventually the worst ideas were filtered out and industry was able to develop around each of these areas until they could compete favorably with internally developed products.

Musk's approach for both Tesla and SpaceX seem to be a very effective to effectively push into a new domain if you have the money and the guts to try. It will be interesting to watch how they evolve over time.

[Seanambers]

The argument about Tesla being to small to matter is dwindling fast. Elon has publicly stated a goal of a yearly production run rate of 20 million before 2030.

And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :)

[ksec]

>And let's not get into the profit margins which is way better than ICE :)

Why is that?

[ksec]

If these projections are true, one fifth of Toyota by 2022 and still growing is an astonishing achievement.