| You can walk yourself through the reasons why with simple math, really. Every disease has an estimated R0. The number of people an infected person will infect. You probably have heard of this. Delta, last I checked, has an estimated R0 of between 5 and 9.5. Vaccination levels reduce that. And it's a simple equation. All you need to know is the vaccination rate for your population, and an estimated efficacy rate of the vaccine. And from that, you can figure the new adjusted Rt: rt = r0 * (1 - (vacRate * eff)) And that's it. And no matter what efficacy rate you pick (infection efficacy estimates for mRNA against Delta vary widely), the resultant rt will be less than the initial r0. And if it's less, then that effectively means that the disease is less contagious for that population, compared to how contagious it was pre-vaccination. And less contagious is better than more contagious. So now I am legitimately curious. What part of the above reasoning do you actually disagree with? (Incidentally, vaccination also improves your chances of avoiding future infection, even if you've already been infected.) |