| Over the summer Florida has been in the news because of an ongoing epidemic spike. Using hospitalization rates, the spike started sometime in early July. By late Sept it is almost gone. The fully vaccinated rate increased from 48% to 59% during the same time period. Is the receding fully explainable by the increase in vaccination rate, or can we consider other forces at play, for example forces of outside human control that have been at play in every single epidemic
before the vaccines era? https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-track... Edit: I plotted Rt as a function of eff, assuming r0=7 and vacRate=1. Rt goes below 1 only for values of eff > 0.85, which means that given the numbers for eff you gave in a different post "overall range of 55.6 - 93.6 effectiveness against infecting others", there are plenty of scenarios where vaccines by themselves cannot stop an infection wave even if the population is 100% vaccinated. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+y+%3D+7+*+%281+-+... https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=solve+1+%3D+7+*+%281+-... Edit2. For a 0.59 vacRate, there are some solutions for R0 * (1 - 0.59 * eff) < 1 with eff in [0, 1] and R0 in [0, 9], specifically there are solutions for R0 < 2.x Not going to cut it for 0.59 vaxx rate and delta, no matter how effective the vaccines are. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+1+%3E+y+*+%281+-+... |
Note that the more populous counties probably increased vaccination at a greater rate, like Miami-Dade went from 56% to 72% over the same time range.