That isn't what this [1] article on hacker news a few hours ago says, in fact a lot of people in that thread expect the opposite issue by the end of next year - over capacity and job losses.
I know this is a stretch but I'm inclined to trust JP Morgan's understanding of the economy more than I do CNN's.
I agree that JP Morgan likely has a better understanding of the economy. However, they have a proportionally higher interest in manipulating the economy to their ends.
Recessions are half psychological, and JP Morgan would get hurt far worse by most recessions that might happen than AT&T by a recession.
Not to mention that if we are going to have a systematic collapse, it will be caused by the elites around the world and no "news" entity will gives us a heads up about it.
Remember that Trump was going to collapse the global system with his "war" against china? Apple and Microsoft have gained 2 trillion dollars in market cap since Trump. That's 2 trillion with a T. The media tells us there is going to be a collapse but people with money are betting that there will be significantly more global trade, even with china.
Who knows what they are actually talking about? Someone working at CNN or the monied elites?
Only if the cause is external to the system - like an asteroid. If the cause is internal ( war, shift in global order, etc ) the people with the money are the ones causing it so they aren't surprised at all. Only the ones out of the loop perhaps will be caught by surprise.
How many rich people, active in the stock market, got caught by surprise by 1929? How many rich people, active in real estate, got caught by surprise by 2008?
You say "causing it". They may be, but I suspect most of them aren't actively, deliberately causing it. So they can still be (and are) caught by surprise when it happens.
> How many rich people, active in the stock market, got caught by surprise by 1929?
When I wrote "elites", I wasn't talking about "rich people" in the common sense. I doubt many elites were surprise considering the 1929 crash happened because the elites decided to start ww2 - japanese invasion of manchuria in 1931.
> How many rich people, active in real estate, got caught by surprise by 2008?
Once again, I'm talking about elites. Not bernie madoff.
> You say "causing it". They may be, but I suspect most of them aren't actively, deliberately causing it.
Of course they are. The masses don't decide when to go to war, when to upset the global world order, etc. It's the elites.
> So they can still be (and are) caught by surprise when it happens.
Absolutely. When the catalyst is external to the system or they are the elites who are left out of the loop ( aka when on group of elites decides to turn against another group of elites ). Unless you think the man-made and controlled system is an organic and natural system.
Shocks to a man-made system can result from natural disasters or it can result from the elites themselves. In the former, it most likely will be shocked to the elites. As for the latter, it won't except for the out-of-the-loop elites.
Sounds like a good opportunity to declare a general strike to negotiate a living wage, affordable healthcare, diginified retirement and a voice in the boardroom.
A general strike only works if you have enough people on board. What makes you think there is? It's easy to think a socialist revolution is right around the corner in certain circles of the internet, but I think actual support is far lower. see: amazon unionization vote.
> It's easy to think a socialist revolution is right around the corner in certain circles of the internet
In the West, we’re about 100 years, give or take, into the socialist revolution, which is a lot more like the Second Agricultural Revolution than the French Revolution, which is why people looking for something that looks like the latter miss it entirely.
Just look at what these groups spend their time squabbling over. This DSA meeting is reflective of how little chance they have of getting anything accomplished: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NdE9CjkvTY
To most actual communists, the DSA is a complete joke. If it wasn't a neutered organization as it is, the whole woke thing has put the last nail in the coffin.
The whole shift in manufacturing has seen a shift from holding supplies to in-flight just in time managment. Which for tiing up capital can prove advantages. Though you are more exposed to any up's and downs in that supply chain or price volitility.
However as things have general run fine, those fears and worry's soon diminished and more and more shifted from warehousing supplies to using suppliers and logistics chains as there warehouse.
Then that whole just in time mentality shifted to workers, so you have tempory/contract staff you can pull in when needed and drop when you don't, zero hour contracts and more money saved on the accountants sheets who did well selling of the old warehouse space to some house building company and made a nice balance sheet that year and far bonus.
This all goes fine until you get a hickup and the whole covid19 set a lot of dominios falling and not only highlighted how the supply chain works, but also opened up a few more cracks.
Which has been educational for some consumers who have for years and years enjoyed cheaper prices - all paid for by this accounting, logistics and off-shoring cheap labour etc.
How will it play out, well it will see price rises, often more than needed by some companies capitalising upon the opportunity, others being unable to rise prices as much and having to burden that extra cost. Some will have supply contracts that are tighter than others for supply and prices with penalty clauses, others not so. But that all boils down to insurance companies and reinsurance having a very interesting time ahead as the whole ripple effect plays out.
Will the system collapse - nope. It will adapt, over compensate and then as the fear and risk seem so far away, slip back into the same cost shaving until the next impacting disaster.
One thing though that will and does seem to be a changing is more divergence in production and with that, supplies. Which will only make the supply chain more robust overall. But then it will take a few years for things to settle and then be more years for all the knock on effect ripples to settle as well - be those government tax bills to pay for bailout or insurance/reinsurance companies and banks seeing the ripple impact play out in debts and claims.
As always we live in interesting times, just gets hard to stay interested sometimes when the news is so depressing in spin-tangent fear and doom.
Though one good thing has changed this past year - people have finally started to appreciate the little people who do all those jobs many take for granted. How long that appreciation will last is perhaps and will it be reflected in how much such people are paid for what they do is an aspect we can only hope changes. But sadly the whole working conditions of some supply chains at the production level has been an issue for a while, only now do we see that highlighted more from a consumer appreciation and understanding. After all in a crisis a bin collection person is more useful than another coffee shop (Though I'm sure some may have valid reasons to disagree)
It will be interesting to see how things end up. Until recently the economy has been based on productivity increasing and things getting cheaper. Productivity can't increase forever and there are signs that in a lot of sectors productivity increases are stalled, part of the attraction of offshoring manufacturing. But eventually that strategy fails as well since you can only offshore for so long before those countries develop to a point at which their exports are no longer competitive.
But maybe there is still a lot of room left for productivity increases with advances in robotics, etc. We're not seeing that now, since it seems like most of the growth comes from services and digital stuff, but maybe it's still a little too early.
it's basically the perfect moment to change the economic model from looking only at GDP to looking at GDP + CO2 + resilience. A little (actually, a lot!) more planned economy is needed than what we have.
Last year it was a media hyped run upon toilet rolls. People panic and react accordingly and do wonder how much of this was created by the media.
However if in the next year or so I read about a house burning down that was filled with toilet rolls and jerry cans - I don't think I will be the slightest bit supprised. As always - I hope I'm wrong as that's how we learn the best.
Funny how universal in nearly all countries the toilet roll hoarding came about ???.
Wife wanted to jump on the bandwagon as well but then I explained to her that the sewage moves to the treatment plants via pumps and if civilization collapsed due to pandemic then using a toilet would be least of our problems.
"The accident came two days after government minister Francis Maude suggested that motorists take the "sensible precaution" of filling up jerry cans and keeping them in the garage."
Every day I see news that makes me ask myself... the world decided 'lockdowns are worth it and you're an anti-vaxxer if you disagree'.... using calculations that ignored how many factors?
I know this is a stretch but I'm inclined to trust JP Morgan's understanding of the economy more than I do CNN's.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28687992