[simorley]

Only if the cause is external to the system - like an asteroid. If the cause is internal ( war, shift in global order, etc ) the people with the money are the ones causing it so they aren't surprised at all. Only the ones out of the loop perhaps will be caught by surprise.

[AnimalMuppet]

How many rich people, active in the stock market, got caught by surprise by 1929? How many rich people, active in real estate, got caught by surprise by 2008?

You say "causing it". They may be, but I suspect most of them aren't actively, deliberately causing it. So they can still be (and are) caught by surprise when it happens.

[simorley]

> How many rich people, active in the stock market, got caught by surprise by 1929?

When I wrote "elites", I wasn't talking about "rich people" in the common sense. I doubt many elites were surprise considering the 1929 crash happened because the elites decided to start ww2 - japanese invasion of manchuria in 1931.

> How many rich people, active in real estate, got caught by surprise by 2008?

Once again, I'm talking about elites. Not bernie madoff.

> You say "causing it". They may be, but I suspect most of them aren't actively, deliberately causing it.

Of course they are. The masses don't decide when to go to war, when to upset the global world order, etc. It's the elites.

> So they can still be (and are) caught by surprise when it happens.

Absolutely. When the catalyst is external to the system or they are the elites who are left out of the loop ( aka when on group of elites decides to turn against another group of elites ). Unless you think the man-made and controlled system is an organic and natural system.

Shocks to a man-made system can result from natural disasters or it can result from the elites themselves. In the former, it most likely will be shocked to the elites. As for the latter, it won't except for the out-of-the-loop elites.

[AnimalMuppet]

> I doubt many elites were surprise considering the 1929 crash happened because the elites decided to start ww2 - japanese invasion of manchuria in 1931.

First, how in the world did the Japanese invasion of Manchuria show that the elites weren't caught by surprise by 1929? I mean, you've listed two events, and one came after the other, but that in no way demonstrates that the elites had advance knowledge of 1929. You're going to have to demonstrate a link there, not just list events.

Second, the amount of influence that western elites had over Japanese foreign policy in 1931 was very close to zero. The amount of control that Japanese elites had over the western financial system was also very close to zero. So you're talking about disjoint sets of elites, which means that your "proof" is lacking in another way.

> Once again, I'm talking about elites. Not bernie madoff.

Yeah, sure. "It's not who you're thinking of, it's someone else." Some never-specified someone else, so that the claim can never be disproven. I notice that you don't name any of these "elites", just "not Bernie Madoff".

You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy-theory nut case. If you've got an actual case, you need to do a better job presenting it.

[simorley]

> First, how in the world did the Japanese invasion of Manchuria show that the elites weren't caught by surprise by 1929? I mean, you've listed two events, and one came after the other, but that in no way demonstrates that the elites had advance knowledge of 1929.

When a global war is planned, the money tends to flood out of speculative consumer goods because that money is needed to fund wars. Why do you think the markets collapse in 1929? Everything was running smoothly and it all crashed down just before the start of the greatest war in human history.

> Second, the amount of influence that western elites had over Japanese foreign policy in 1931 was very close to zero.

Japan has been a US "vassal" since the 1850s. We used Japan as an attack dog to protect our interests in china/east asia and of course to keep the russians at bay. If you are interested, go read about a bunch of black ships sailing into tokyo bay in the 1850s. Sure, Japan got off leash for a few years, but we corrected such "misbehavior" rather brutally. The idea that the "the west" had no influence over japan is laughable.

> I notice that you don't name any of these "elites", just "not Bernie Madoff".

I imagine the elites are people who I will never hear of. I don't know. The people who decide to sanction cuba, venezuela, etc. The people who decided to open trade relations with china in the 1970s. The people who decided to invade iraq. Certainly the people didn't decide any of it. Certainly madoff didn't either, but that's my assumption.

> You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy-theory nut case. If you've got an actual case, you need to do a better job presenting it.

What is "conspiratorial" about saying the elites set up any system - national or international. Who do you think set up the global order? Aliens? The people? Who do you think sets up governments? Who do you think starts wars. Who do you think artificial man-made systems are created and broken down.

Resorting to silly ad hominems doesn't make you look great. I'm not saying there is some crazy "conspiracy" for the elites to collapse the system to turn humans into batteries. I'm saying that artifical human systems are created by elites and usually broken down by elites. The exceptions being natural causes.

[AnimalMuppet]

All right, let me try saying the same thing in a way that isn't an ad hominem: You're coming from the starting position that the elites control and decide most everything. For those of us who don't share that starting point, you aren't giving nearly enough to be convincing.

For example, Japan. Yes, I know about Perry. That doesn't mean that the US was running Japan's foreign policy 80 years later. Where is your evidence that the US-imposed vassal status lasted much past the Meiji Restoration? (Yes, they were open to trade after that. That doesn't make them a vassal.)

Or the crash of 1929. Where is your evidence that elites pulling money out to fund WWII was the cause of 1929? The conventional position is that it was a speculative bubble crashing in the normal way that such bubbles crash, through mechanisms that are fairly well understood. Where is your evidence that the standard narrative is wrong?

You think elites set up the system. I agree with that; they do. (Who else is going to set them up? If you've got the power to set up a system, you are, by definition, one of the elite.) Where we differ is that I think things are much more chaotic than you do, and therefore that the elites have much less actual control.

[simorley]

> You're coming from the starting position that the elites control and decide most everything.

No. Just the systematically important things. Obviously they aren't concerned about every minutiae.

> For those of us who don't share that starting point, you aren't giving nearly enough to be convincing.

What other starting point is there? Who else but the elites create systematically important institutions? Also, you are really asking for the impossible. It's not like the elite come out and say, "we are the elite".

> For example, Japan. Yes, I know about Perry. That doesn't mean that the US was running Japan's foreign policy 80 years later.

That's quite a walk back from "the amount of influence that western elites had over Japanese foreign policy in 1931 was very close to zero.". You just jumped from one extreme ( no influence ) to running the whole show.

> Where is your evidence that the US-imposed vassal status lasted much past the Meiji Restoration?

Other than the fact we currently occupy japan? Can't tell whether you are being serious or not. We are the ones that allowed Japan to have korea.

"Back in 1900, Roosevelt had written, 'I should like to see Japan have Korea.'"

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opinion/06bradley.html

We are the ones that limited japan's naval growth via the washington naval treaty. You can read up on that yourself. As I said, other than those few years where japan "rebelled", they've been a vassal. Don't ever remember us or anyone else freeing them from vassalage.

> Or the crash of 1929. Where is your evidence that elites pulling money out to fund WWII was the cause of 1929?

All crashes are a result of the elites creating the environment whether money flows out of the markets. Naturally they'd be the first to pull out which causes others to and so forth. What else could it be?

> The conventional position is that it was a speculative bubble crashing in the normal way that such bubbles crash, through mechanisms that are fairly well understood. Where is your evidence that the standard narrative is wrong?

Right. Who creates the environment of speculative bubbles? Are they fairly well understood? Funny how we keep getting speculative bubbles and financial crises. Unless you think the markets are natural entites and not artificial man-made creations. Does mother nature naturally create a stock bubble? Does mother nature naturally pop it? Or do you think it's because your friend stop funding his 401k?

> You think elites set up the system. I agree with that; they do.

But you said you disagreed with me from the very start. "For those of us who don't share that starting point, you aren't giving nearly enough to be convincing."

> Where we differ is that I think things are much more chaotic than you do, and therefore that the elites have much less actual control.

What's chaotic? Things seem remarkable stable. So elites have the power to create a global order but they don't have the power to control it? Makes sense. Once again, so chaos starts wars? Chaos invented the lie about iraq wmds?

Nevermind who created the 2008 financial crisis. Who do you think fixed it? You? Me? Or did the elites come up with a plan to prop up the markets? We can never have any definitive proof because it's the nature of this business. But my educated seems more correct rather than your "conventional wisdom". Good day.