[akomtu]

A typical 4-year vesting plan at 500k/year gives 2M in "nominal" dollars. 2x that to account for stock market growth, 2x for work life balance (startups demand 2x more of your time than FANG), 3x for dilution and other startup shenanigans, 5x for the risk (how many C series get bought for 1B within 5 years?), and you need a 60x2M offer from a startup to just match FANG. 120M looks outrageous only because it's fake money: 95% of the time you won't get anything.

[icedchai]

95% chance of not getting anything seems about right.

I had 0.5% of a startup that just went through a seed round, about 10 years ago. It got acquired by a larger startup that was "going to IPO." Reality is that larger company went through a few down rounds, got bought by a PE firm, barely paid back the initial investors, and I wound up with about $10K (profit.)

Next startup: as the first engineering hire, I got about 5%. After several down rounds, that 5% is now 1%. Several years later, the company valuation is barely 7 figures. I also invested some of my own money into the company (preferred shares) that have declined in value by 90%. I've since moved on, but the odds of even getting my investment back are near zero.

I've done far, far better investing in the stock market.

[dasil003]

This is a silly way to think about the tradeoff between startup and big-co. Startup equity is typically ISOs which is to say it's literally worth zero the day it's granted, and it only gains value if the valuation increases, and even then subject to dilution, cliffs, etc. The reason you buy into it is some combination of believing in the company and valuing the experience, not because of some expected value calculation.