[icedchai]

95% chance of not getting anything seems about right.

I had 0.5% of a startup that just went through a seed round, about 10 years ago. It got acquired by a larger startup that was "going to IPO." Reality is that larger company went through a few down rounds, got bought by a PE firm, barely paid back the initial investors, and I wound up with about $10K (profit.)

Next startup: as the first engineering hire, I got about 5%. After several down rounds, that 5% is now 1%. Several years later, the company valuation is barely 7 figures. I also invested some of my own money into the company (preferred shares) that have declined in value by 90%. I've since moved on, but the odds of even getting my investment back are near zero.

I've done far, far better investing in the stock market.