[jbay808]

Yes, he didn't predict details like the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991. "Scenario C" was a rapid emissions tapering scenario, not a global lower bound for possible future temperatures. But if it makes you feel better, if you add the more recent data going up to 2020, it still quite closely tracks Scenario B.

[Uhhrrr]

Looking at the post you quoted again, in paragraph 2 it says it did include expectation of a volcanic eruption:

> Scenario B and C had an ‘El Chichon’ sized volcanic eruption in 1995.

EDIT: Looking at the graph once again, he predicted in scenario B that we would see more than .6 deg C of warming between 2000 and 2020.

But it appears that we've only had about .3 deg C of warming in the past 20 years: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-o...

[jbay808]

Your objection was that his prediction was "often below". You can see that a big part of this is 1991-1995, as his volcano guess was a few years late.

This chart is to the same scale as in the realclimate link. As of 2020, we're about 0.1 to 0.2 degrees below the Scenario B forecast, at +1 instead of ~+1.15.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/

What do you think a good 1988 model prediction would look like?

[Uhhrrr]

Your new chart overlays all ten years for each decade over each other with the same color. This is great for obscuring, but not much else. Is there a reason you don't like the more legible chart I posted?

Looking again at your original link, Hansen's scenario B predicts a ~1.45 deg increase from 1988. So, in answer to your question, not that.

[jbay808]

If you scroll down just a bit you'll see this one.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Glob...

And, where do you see 1.45 C forecast for 2020 outside of Scenario A? Scenario B doesn't even come close to the 1.25 indicator line.

[Uhhrrr]

The realclimate.org graph (https://www.realclimate.org/images/Hansen88_forc.jpg) shows B as off the chart by 2020, but 1988 is around .2 and 2015 is around 1.45. Extending another 5 years, should be about 1.45 deg C difference by 2020.

The NASA chart shows a rise of about .7 during that time.

[jbay808]

That's not a graph of temperature. It's a graph of the emissions (expressed as a forcing) that define each scenario. You want the one below it.