[Uhhrrr]

Looking at the post you quoted again, in paragraph 2 it says it did include expectation of a volcanic eruption:

> Scenario B and C had an ‘El Chichon’ sized volcanic eruption in 1995.

EDIT: Looking at the graph once again, he predicted in scenario B that we would see more than .6 deg C of warming between 2000 and 2020.

But it appears that we've only had about .3 deg C of warming in the past 20 years: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-o...

[jbay808]

Your objection was that his prediction was "often below". You can see that a big part of this is 1991-1995, as his volcano guess was a few years late.

This chart is to the same scale as in the realclimate link. As of 2020, we're about 0.1 to 0.2 degrees below the Scenario B forecast, at +1 instead of ~+1.15.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/

What do you think a good 1988 model prediction would look like?

[Uhhrrr]

Your new chart overlays all ten years for each decade over each other with the same color. This is great for obscuring, but not much else. Is there a reason you don't like the more legible chart I posted?

Looking again at your original link, Hansen's scenario B predicts a ~1.45 deg increase from 1988. So, in answer to your question, not that.

[jbay808]

If you scroll down just a bit you'll see this one.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Glob...

And, where do you see 1.45 C forecast for 2020 outside of Scenario A? Scenario B doesn't even come close to the 1.25 indicator line.

[Uhhrrr]

The realclimate.org graph (https://www.realclimate.org/images/Hansen88_forc.jpg) shows B as off the chart by 2020, but 1988 is around .2 and 2015 is around 1.45. Extending another 5 years, should be about 1.45 deg C difference by 2020.

The NASA chart shows a rise of about .7 during that time.

[jbay808]

That's not a graph of temperature. It's a graph of the emissions (expressed as a forcing) that define each scenario. You want the one below it.

[Uhhrrr]

So it is, my apologies.