[sjg007]

In Minnesota 645k people had covid and 7k died. In contrast 3M are vaccinated and basically nobody has died from the vaccine. In the US 363M vaccine doses have been given and about 7k may have died from vaccination side effects vs 628k who have died from covid from covid.

So the vaccine is safe and effective.

[acituan]

No one in this forum says otherwise.

But you miss human emotions 101: If someone tells you they are worried about something, you don’t throw facts at them as the first thing. You ask them to tell more about their emotions, hear them and make them feel heard. They might as well be missing factual data (as the case with vaccine hesitating folks) but their emotions are real, and unless they are treated as a person they’d be close to influence because they are in a skeptic, anxious state to begin with.

Often people barge in like performing an exorcism expecting the power of data compelling the “possessed” demonized other to the “light”. Such vilification is a self-fulfilling process.

[sjg007]

You are more likely to get hurt or die in car accident on the way to get your vaccine then from the vaccine itself. After that car accident when you are in the hospital recovering you will probably get covid there.

[acituan]

I don't see the relevance of your point. Perhaps you replied to the wrong thread or misunderstood what you've read?

[sjg007]

The point is to translate it into a related human experience vs "throwing out a bunch of numbers and data".

[acituan]

Not only you are still throwing bunch of numbers and data only this time using comparatives ("more likely"), you seem to have also mistaken me as someone in need of convincing, which shows you haven't listened to what I've said careful enough to understand it. If I was a person that needed to be convinced, I would trust you even less just on that basis.

Finally you make the assumption that people have a problem with understanding the propositions. I'm saying they have a problem with not being heard about their emotions. You've just demonstrated that, in addition to not listening well.

[sjg007]

At this point in the pandemic I would suggest they see a therapist.

[angelzen]

Vaccine protection is weakening over time (boosters), mutations evading the vaccine are around the corner (Pfizer CEO), epidemiological profile is vastly different between <20 and >70. There are 4 other coronaviruses kids get exposed to when young with no vaccine and naturally build immunity for it for a lifetime.

Over 30: Take the vaccine and hope for the best.

Under 20:

a. Take the vaccine and be naked when the vaccine resistant variant eventually emerges.

b. Don't take the vaccine and build wide spectrum immunity to infections from covid family. Considering that the risk of complications from covid infection for this age group is in the same ballpark as the flu.

[CarelessExpert]

> a. Take the vaccine and be naked when the vaccine resistant variant eventually emerges.

First, this is deeply deeply misleading, to the point of being misinformation. The idea that a version of COVID will pop out that renders the current vaccines completely useless is founded in nothing but alarmist speculation. Could it happen? Maybe. But we have a virus now that's known to be dangerous, for which we have a vaccine that's very effective. To not take that vaccine, now, based on this speculative fear is completely nonsensical.

Second, it's a false dichotomy:

c. Take the vaccine, get a mild breakthrough case of covid later that builds even stronger protection.

[angelzen]

This is also a possibility. The open scenario is: take the vaccine, don't get a breakthrough case (vaccines work as intended and quickly suppress it), but do get a vaccine-resistant infection later on.

If there is more information on the long-term behavior of the immune system conditioned on vaccines and/or natural immunity and/or mutations, please share. My understanding is that nobody has a complete understanding and a reliable prediction model. Everybody is making educated guesses in the dark, though I am very open to learn more from credible sources.

[CarelessExpert]

> Everybody is making educated guesses in the dark,

We are absolutely not.

Are there many things we don't know about the function of the immune system?

Sure.

Are we "in the dark"? This couldn't be more incorrect, and again, borders on deeply misleading misinformation.

Frankly, this smells a lot like the kind of climate change denial we used to hear. i.e., because there was uncertainty, we therefore can trust nothing and know nothing. And that "logic" was just as flawed, then, as it is now.

[angelzen]

Did we know ahead of time if mRNA vaccine immunity is stronger / weaker than post covid-infection natural immunity? For each strain?

Did we know ahead of time when/where Delta will arise? Did we know ahead of time its infectiousness / virulence parameters?

Do we know when / where the next strain will arise? Do we know if it will be more/less infectious than Delta? Do we know if it will be more/less virulent than Delta? How about per age group?

Do we know whether vaccines protect against potential future vaccine resistant strains? Admittedly an oxymoron, but such is the ridiculousness of this conversation.

What we do know is that the virus is likely to mutate to avoid the narrow spectrum mRNA vaccines. We don't know when / where / how.

That's what I call educated guesses in the dark.

PS. Please do us a favor and keep your ad-hominems for yourself. It may feel good in the moment, but it doesn't strengthen your arguments.

[sjg007]

The virus will mutate no matter what regardless of vaccine. It's not the vaccines that are driving mutations. The vaccine basically programs a set of immune system regex stream filters. Maybe some mutants get past it, well then the immune system will generates another response to it as it goes on to infect other cells in the body etc...

Some of the original variants are thought to have arisen out of immuno-compromised pre-vaccinated patients. Maybe they got IVIg, monoclonal antibodies, or convalescent plasma.

[sjg007]

Umm. Presumably you've had the chickenpox vaccine, the TDAP vaccine, and a bunch of others as a kid as a condition to go to school. These have been well studied for decades.

> but do get a vaccine-resistant infection later on.

This is a redherring.

This would be the equivalent to have never encountered covid and getting infected by that variant then. So you know maybe a new kid born in the next few months or something.

It'd also be equivalent to someone getting chemo that wipes out their immune system and now gets covid after they recover.

[angelzen]

We are taking an open bet: will the vaccine resistant covid strain(s) that are likely to emerge be more/less virulent than Delta or not? I don't have a crystal ball, but given that we know that for <20s the risk of complications from Delta is vanishingly small, why take the bet?

[sjg007]

All signs point to lambda being more virulent/deadly etc…. Still has nothing to do with the vaccines.

If covid mutates sufficiently fast, say as fast as HIV then we will have a big time problem.