[BrentOzar]

> What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital?

Iceland is fairly transparent with those numbers, but the only easily-accessible metrics are in the Icelandic version of the news:

https://www-mbl-is.translate.goog/frettir/innlent/2021/08/22...

"17 patients are in the emergency department of the hospital and seven of them are unvaccinated. There are seven in intensive care and three are unvaccinated. Five are on a ventilator and two of them are unvaccinated."

Those numbers are typical of the daily news: most of the hospitalized are usually vaccinated. You're going to have all kinds of followup questions like which vaccine did they get, what percentage of the population got which vaccine versus got hospitalized, etc. I'm just sharing this so you can see how you can't possibly gather all of those details quickly, especially when the situation is in flux.

Plus, given that this is peak tourism season for Iceland and a lot of folks here are from out of the country right now, you'd probably want a breakdown of what percentage are foreigners versus residents, and that's not available as far as I'm aware.

[probablypower]

>you'd probably want a breakdown of what percentage are foreigners versus residents, and that's not available as far as I'm aware.

That data is available here: https://www.covid.is/data

Data on vaccinations is here: https://www.covid.is/statistical-information-on-vaccination

Even though half of hospitalisations are vaccinated people, it is important to consider that we are now 71% vaccinated (84% for people over 12 years old). This means you have roughly a 1:25000 chance of ending up in hospital if your vaccinated, versus a 1:3000 chance if you're unvaccinated.

In terms of infections the present wave is far worse than earlier waves, but our hospitals are handling it, and as a result we haven't needed as strict lockdown measures. I imagine most other countries will take the same approach, and as a result COVID will become a part of human society as a season flu.

If you aren't willing to get vaccinated, I suggest you get COVID as soon as possible, as prognosis gets worse with age and COVID isn't going away. More so, as someone who has had both COVID and a vaccine, I strongly suggest just getting vaccinated. One day of feeling glum is far better than a multi-week flu and months of lingering effects (sensory, physical and mental).

[refurb]

Your probabilities are confounded by asymptomatic cases, in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.

In regularly tested populations, the number of asymptomatic cases can be quite high (50%). Unless they are tested and identified they will never be counted.

[sokoloff]

It seems perfectly reasonable to care more about symptomatic cases and a lot more about cases requiring hospitalization.

Sure, let’s do the research to learn more about the disease including asymptotic cases, but I’m going to be honest: if anyone in my family had an asymptotic case, I’d be happy about rather than upset at this point.

[nradov]

The CDC estimates that only 15% of cases are completely asymptomatic. But most have mild symptoms.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

[criticaltinker]

That CDC estimate is based on a simple probabilistic multiplier model from data up to Nov 2020 [0].

More recent meta-analyses [1] and large population-based serological studies [2] suggest a lower bound for the asymptomatic proportion to be at least ~33%. For young adults the upper bound for asymptomatic rate is likely between 65%-90% (95% CI) [2]. Considering other recent evidence that cases may be massively underreported [3], the true asymptomatic proportion could be even higher than what has been suggested.

[0] Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization—United States, February–September 2020 https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/12/e1010/6000389

[1] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976

[2] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

[3] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372...