[refurb]

Your probabilities are confounded by asymptomatic cases, in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.

In regularly tested populations, the number of asymptomatic cases can be quite high (50%). Unless they are tested and identified they will never be counted.

[sokoloff]

It seems perfectly reasonable to care more about symptomatic cases and a lot more about cases requiring hospitalization.

Sure, let’s do the research to learn more about the disease including asymptotic cases, but I’m going to be honest: if anyone in my family had an asymptotic case, I’d be happy about rather than upset at this point.

[nradov]

The CDC estimates that only 15% of cases are completely asymptomatic. But most have mild symptoms.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

[criticaltinker]

That CDC estimate is based on a simple probabilistic multiplier model from data up to Nov 2020 [0].

More recent meta-analyses [1] and large population-based serological studies [2] suggest a lower bound for the asymptomatic proportion to be at least ~33%. For young adults the upper bound for asymptomatic rate is likely between 65%-90% (95% CI) [2]. Considering other recent evidence that cases may be massively underreported [3], the true asymptomatic proportion could be even higher than what has been suggested.

[0] Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization—United States, February–September 2020 https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/12/e1010/6000389

[1] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976

[2] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

[3] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372...