[vkou]

1. Why would there be a mass exodus, any shareholder board will fire a C-suite that gives up selling to the world's fastest growing market / building in the world's most capable manufacturing market. Expecting one is just wishful thinking. Boards and executives tend to care about the bottom line, and very rarely about political grandstanding.

2. Even if there were a mass exodus (Which won't happen, because #1), the factories, the expertise, the knowledge base and the human capital those investments paid for aren't going to disappear. All that will happen is that they will become China-owned, as opposed to partially China-owned.

[SubiculumCode]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-27/china-s-c...

[vkou]

1. Investors selling stock has zero bearing on the operation of a factory, barring certain edge cases. Companies extract money from the stock market by issuing IPOs, after that happens, it doesn't matter to them very much at what price their shares are traded. See my previous post - just because the stock value drops, doesn't mean that actual assets, know-how, expertise, or training disappears into thin air. [1]

2. Foreigners selling will lead to locals buying. Those firms will simply go from majority-Chinese-owned, to Chinese-owned.

3. Stock markets don't just go up all the time, sometimes they correct.

[1] It does in the United States, but that's because during slumps, the government is very skittish when it comes to creating demand, outside of the MIC. The CCP takes a longer view, and actively prioritizes building up China's industrial base, as opposed to dismantling and offshoring it.

[JohnPrine]

citation needed for your first point: "Companies extract money from the stock market by issuing IPOs, after that happens, it doesn't matter to them very much at what price their shares are traded"

[vkou]

It matters to the people running those companies (Because they own a lot of stock, or work for people who own a lot of stock). It matters less for the firms, themselves.

A high stock price prevents a corporate takeover (which is not a real-world-value-destroying activity - factories operated by a company don't burn up when it happens), and it makes it possible for the firm to raise money by selling stock. In a world of low interest rates, and easy credit, this is not very important.

[zip1234]

Why invest in something if you know that your money will be stolen?

[itmayno]

India is the fastest growing market.

Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.

Not sure why we are discussing validity of exodus when public companies have already reported mass exodus of manufacturing from China.

[eunos]

There was only a year that India has higher GDP growth compared to China, real GDP growth of course is still way behind. Yet after that year it went downhill, before COVID their growth was only around 4%.

[vkou]

China's GDP per capita has grown by 120% in the past 11 years. India's grew by 54%. China also started the decade at a much higher baseline than India.

India is not the fastest growing market, either in relative, or absolute terms. The number of globally-middle class people in China far eclipses the number of their counterparts in India. The rate at which people enter the global-middle class is much faster in China. It's possible that one day, India will become the fastest growing market, but that day isn't today, or tomorrow, or next year.

> Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.

You simply can't re-shore the ecosystem that arose in Shenzhen. Not without two decades of hemorrhaging money, depending on government handouts, and having a much slower time to market. The labour cost isn't even the problem, there's just no supporting industry in the US that can match the turnaround times/SLAs that vendors in China offer.

It's possible for say, the US to close down its economy, build a wall of tariffs, and only buy local (And thus, eventually, at great cost, rebuild its industry. It's not a bad idea, but the electorate won't stand for it), but those factories in Shenzhen will keep operating, and will pivot towards selling to the middle class of the domestic market, and of the developing world, instead.