[itmayno]

India is the fastest growing market.

Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.

Not sure why we are discussing validity of exodus when public companies have already reported mass exodus of manufacturing from China.

[eunos]

There was only a year that India has higher GDP growth compared to China, real GDP growth of course is still way behind. Yet after that year it went downhill, before COVID their growth was only around 4%.

[vkou]

China's GDP per capita has grown by 120% in the past 11 years. India's grew by 54%. China also started the decade at a much higher baseline than India.

India is not the fastest growing market, either in relative, or absolute terms. The number of globally-middle class people in China far eclipses the number of their counterparts in India. The rate at which people enter the global-middle class is much faster in China. It's possible that one day, India will become the fastest growing market, but that day isn't today, or tomorrow, or next year.

> Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.

You simply can't re-shore the ecosystem that arose in Shenzhen. Not without two decades of hemorrhaging money, depending on government handouts, and having a much slower time to market. The labour cost isn't even the problem, there's just no supporting industry in the US that can match the turnaround times/SLAs that vendors in China offer.

It's possible for say, the US to close down its economy, build a wall of tariffs, and only buy local (And thus, eventually, at great cost, rebuild its industry. It's not a bad idea, but the electorate won't stand for it), but those factories in Shenzhen will keep operating, and will pivot towards selling to the middle class of the domestic market, and of the developing world, instead.