[jacquesm]

That's not how this works. You can only compare with the future that wasn't. People may decide all by themselves that wearing a mask is a good idea, mandate or not, and then there is the point that not all masks are created equal, which is the subject of this thread.

[danhak]

Is your argument that outcomes of different policy decisions cannot be compared across different jurisdictions?

[jacquesm]

Not without carefully controlling for all kinds of variables, demographics, geography, internal and external connectivity and so on. No two areas are closely alike in all those respects.

[danhak]

Do you similarly feel that comparisons across different populations are invalid for arguing the affirmative?

e.g. arguments like "we should try masking / UBI / $15 minimum wage / free healthcare / universal pre-k because it worked well in ${location}" are also "not how this works" because we can "only compare with the future that wasn't?"

Do such arguments need to control for the infinite number of confounding variables before having any value?