[northerdome]

Uber operates in almost every major US city today. It has overcome years of predictions it would fail. Yet I still can get an Uber in minutes almost anywhere in the country. Will it get more expensive? Probably. Is it a replacement for car ownership or transit? Definitely not. But Uber will live on. It's good enough to ensure sizable marketshare for the long term.

[disgruntledphd2]

How do you see them making a profit?

Like, if you need to exclude stock based compensation (amongst other things) from your adjusted EBITDA metric, then you have problems with your business model.

[djrogers]

> How do you see them making a profit?

By raising prices. There is a point at which the market will bear the cost and Uber can make a profit. It won’t be as cheap as it is now, and likely will be down in scale/volume, but that point does exist - the existence of taxis and all of their medallion cabal bs over the years proves it.

[timr]

Uber is already dramatically more expensive in NYC. It's to the point where, most of the time, it is smarter/faster/better to take a taxi, if you're paying attention. Most people still look at Uber first (if only because of muscle memory), but multiple times in the last few months I've watched someone do it and recoil from the sticker shock. Just this weekend, someone I knew was quoted $130 to get from Cobble Hill to the UES. Even if you're almost completely price-insensitive, that's a trip that can be made in 45 minutes (~about the same as driving) for $3 in subway fare.

I don't know what's going on with Uber in the rest of the world, but here, there can't possibly be any more margin to consume.

[kelnos]

I think NYC is not a great example, as it's one of the few places in the US with a decently-good public transit system, and the density to support a large-enough number of taxis.

In SF, Uber (and Lyft), despite the higher prices, is still much better than the alternatives for most trips. I suspect the same is true for many other places, especially for trips in/out/adjacent to a dense city.

I'm thinking of things like when I visit my sister in Maryland. I fly into Dulles, get an Uber/Lyft, and I'm there in 25-30 minutes at a cost of around $35-40. I could take the new silver metro line into DC (pre-pandemic it wasn't finished, so you'd have to take a bus from Dulles to the nearest completed station), and then the red line back out, but then the trip is around 90 minutes (plus getting my sister to drive me 8 minutes from the nearest metro station). Much cheaper, certainly, but orders of magnitude less convenient.

[northerdome]

NYC is exceptional. Manhattan is dense enough you can hail a cab on demand. The same can not be said for the rest of the country. Uber may never be competitive in Manhattan but they don't need to.

In much of the country, a ten minute drive would take over an hour on public transit if you take infrequent headways into account. And that is when it is possible to take public transit.

[sabarn01]

In smaller cities it often took over an hour to get a cab before uber. The price was also insane.

[kelnos]

I never understood why stock comp was included in EBITDA. How does stock comp actually cost the company money? All it really does is dilute existing investors, no?

[northerdome]

Raising prices. Even with higher prices they will still be relevant in much of the country where there is no credible alternative than to drive.

[vb6sp6]

> It has overcome years of predictions it would fail

If you kept getting billions in investment cash, you could could also keep a business that loses money each quarter going for years

[nabla9]

With -30% operating margin and -$2B operating cash flow it will not live on.

[mypalmike]

It's not a problem! I predict flooz will make a comeback and with some clever accounting, those negative dollar amounts can be changed into positive flooz.

[asdff]

Within minutes you say? You must have not used it very recently. My fastest time has been like 25 minutes with the recent lack of drivers.

[kelnos]

I guess it depends on where you are. In Honolulu a few weeks ago it would take 15 minutes just to confirm your ride, and then another 10-20 for the driver to get there. (Granted, they are also experiencing a massive tourist surge, greater than pre-pandemic levels.)

In SF, I still see 5-10 minute driver arrivals from when I click the "request" button.