[clomond]

My understanding is the following.

While BEVs are the clear technological winner based on “source to wheels” efficiency - you could make the case that, if looking at Hydrogen vehicles in isolation, that Japan would be one of the best places for it / the most likely place where it could have success. From high density metropolises (less expense for fueling stations than would be required elsewhere), a strong political interest to not use oil anymore (as Japan as to import almost all of their primary energy), to a desire to build out with less dependence on China based minerals and supply chains - building out a domestic supply chain of fuel cells and hydrolyzers is arguably easier than for BEVs (even though, some of the most experienced and respected li-ion cell developers are Japanese).

The Japanese car market is also significantly more utilitarian than in other parts of the world (meaning performance matters less).

Yes, the Japanese government would be wise to shift course. But from a Japanese national security perspective/energy independence perspective, as well as hypothetical roll out - if there is any place it could work, it would be Japan.

[mullingitover]

The problem with fuel cell vehicles is they still need batteries. Not as big of a battery, but they still a battery of some kind because the fuel cell can't deliver burstable power the way a battery can. So the FCV is really the worst of all possible worlds - all the complexity of a fuel cell, plus all the rare earth needs of a BEV.

I also can't believe that the production and distribution network for hydrogen could be anywhere near as efficient as direct distribution of electrons. This whole idea seems like a nation-scale Rube Goldberg machine.

[Hypx_]

There's a world of difference between a 1.5 kWh battery and an 80 kWh battery.

[mullingitover]

Yes, I imagine the 1.5kWh will deliver pretty sluggish performance, but it'll be in a car that costs more than a BEV, with less reliability and with even worse range anxiety.

[Hypx_]

Nothing you said is true.

[mullingitover]

Here's where things stand right now:

2021 Toyota Mirai:

0-60 in 9.2 seconds

$49,500

43 publicly available hydrogen stations in the US

2020 Bolt EV:

0-60 in 6.3 seconds

$33,000

41,400 EV charging stations in the US (and charging at home is easy)

If you're going to claim that an FCEV is more reliable in spite of the extreme differences in mechanical complexity, I'm all ears and would love to see some cites for that.

BEVs are getting cheaper faster than FCVs, FCVs don't have a prayer of ever competing with BEVs on performance, and there are ~1000x public EV charging stations compared to hydrogen stations.

[Hypx_]

Hydrogen supercars and race cars exist. It's matter of having a high enough discharge rate battery or a supercapacitor. It's a completely pointless argument to bring up.

Hydrogen buses are already cheaper to operate than battery buses and are more reliable: https://cafcp.org/sites/default/files/07-24-2020-Foothill-ZE...

Real world testing has already proven you wrong.

[zoomablemind]

>... a strong political interest to not use oil anymore (as Japan as to import almost all of their primary energy), to a desire to build out with less dependence on China based minerals and supply chains ...

Given the Toyota's scale and general scarcity of rare-earth minerals, betting fully on the li-ion tech would be indeed too risky without a viable plan B towards EV. Does the world economy need any more reasons to empower China? Can't see Japan's interest in that, given the recent developments in South China sea and environs.

I hope Toyota's engineering efforts will again provide an alternative which would progress beyond the current trend.

[rcMgD2BwE72F]

They are no rare-earth minerals in Li-Ion batteries!

There may be some in electric motors, but 1) hydrogen vehicles need those motors too and 2) it is not required (some EV have zero rare-earth mineral already).

[coolspot]

Most of efficient Li-Ion batteries use cobalt mined by slaves in Congo. Tesla promises to reduce cobalt content but they didn’t yet.

[davidgould]

Tesla has reduced (but not yet eliminated) cobalt in their batteries over the years and has further reductions in the works.

Tesla does not source cobalt from the Congo.

[Hypx_]

These problems are also true for nearly every country except China and a few others. UK, Germany, etc., also import huge amounts of energy and they too will need a way of importing energy in the future. Furthermore, none of these countries have any meaningful supply of battery related minerals nor any substantial battery manufacturing capacity.