[cs702]

I strongly disagree. By all measures I've seen (including a couple of slides in the OP's video), Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower (i.e., around 10x safer). I mean, the machine never gets distracted, tired, sleepy, emotional, drunk, etc., so it is a LOT LESS likely to crash on boring, monotonous road segments than most people -- who do get distracted, tired, sleepy, etc. Not only that, but people make really scary mistakes in routine circumstances. The video shows several examples of human drivers hitting the accelerator when they actually meant to hit the brake!

The criticism of autopilot is really about it getting tripped-up in response to statistically rare, unusual circumstances, i.e., edge cases. Karpathy et al are working on getting better at those, bringing the rate of situations that surprise autopilot closer and closer to 0%, even if it can never be achieved -- there will be always be surprises. Personally, I would rather take a tiny risk of crash on rare, once-in-a-million-miles events with autopilot driving than a ~1% risk of crash per 1000 to 2000 miles with everyday human driving.

Prediction: Tesla will be the first of all major automakers to get to level 4 and 5 autonomy.

[aimkey]

>Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower (i.e., around 10x safer).

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Tesla here, is, again, being funny with the numbers. They LOVE to cite autopilot ON death statistics as being "10x safer than normal driving". What they fail to note is that Autopilot can ONLY be on while driving on a limited access highway. Highways are much safer to drive on than a mix of ALL ROADS, which is where the baseline figure comes from.

Another confounding factor is the price of the vehicle. The average CONFIGURED Tesla with the FSD package today costs what? $65k? More? Those X's and S's are $100k+. Nobody is buying that base Model 3. The point is that Tesla drivers are 1) Older and 2) Wealthy. Wealthy, older people get in far fewer car crashes than the average driver. In fact, car crash fatalities are really driven by two groups: drunks (or pill addicts), and young (teenage) men. Not saying it's IMPOSSIBLE to have a substance abuse problem and own a Tesla, but the average Tesla owner is less likely to have these issues. It's also less likely to own a Tesla while young.

So, Tesla autopilot stats should be compared to other comparably priced vehicles while driving on the highway ONLY. That would actually be a fair, honest comparison. I believe a recent outgoing BMW 5 series chassis finished its entire life without a single fatality in the US. That's right -- 4-5 years of service in the US without a single death. Turns out, wealthy people who drive expensive family sedans don't get in a lot of fatal highway crashes.

Here's a Forbes article (sorry) doing some of the back-of-the-napkin math. They estimated that in Q3 2019, autopilot really wasn't any safer than manual driving.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-te...

[cs702]

> So, Tesla autopilot stats should be compared to other comparably priced vehicles while driving on the highway ONLY.

I disagree. Autopilot driving on the highway should be compared to all human drivers driving on the highway. Otherwise you wouldn't be comparing against human performance per mile driven apples-to-apples.

[aimkey]

Modern vehicles have much safer crash characteristics than older cars. The average vehicle on the road in the US is 11 years old. Do you know how much crash characteristics of cars have improved in the last decade? The comparison needs to stay in the modern, $65k+ vehicle realm for it to be apples-to-apples. Otherwise, you're comparing a bunch of decade old rust buckets with heat-cycled rubber, no blind spot monitoring, and Takata airbags to modern vehicles and claiming victory. Come on.

The BMW F10 535i had ZERO FATALITIES over its entire life in the US. Zero. It had no "self-driving" capabilities. Just lane-departure warning, BLIS, and ACC.

[cs702]

> The BMW F10 535i had ZERO FATALITIES over its entire life in the US. Zero. It had no "self-driving" capabilities. Just lane-departure warning, BLIS, and ACC.

Yes, all evidence I've seen indicates that cars partially driven by computers (adaptive cruise control, lane-departure warning, blind spot information, etc.) are safer than cars entirely driven by human beings. The BMW you mention is safer precisely because it is partially driven by machines. The more we automate driving, as machines get better and better at it, the safer we will all be on the road.

[aimkey]

> Yes, all evidence I've seen indicates that cars partially driven by computers

Emphasis on PARTIALLY. Anyone who has read recent takeover scenario studies is rightfully horrified at the notion of a completely “hands off” driving experience, where the driver is expected to remain alert and vigilant but they’re not inputting any steering, throttle, or braking. Unsurprisingly, it takes people about 2 seconds to re-engage as active drivers. 2 seconds is way too long, which is why it may be safer to NOT use a system that does steering input in addition to throttle and brake. You need to keep the drivers actively engaged. And no, “touch the steering wheel every 30 seconds” is not active engagement. And if a car has “self driving” but also active driver monitoring, what’s the point? The driver doesn’t get to relax at all. The stress of driving doesn’t come from the input unless you’re racing. The stress of driving comes from having to stay alert. If I have to stay alert, I’d rather just drive myself instead of trusting an experimental system that drives like an indecisive, half-blind grandmother.

The BMW was safe PRIMARILY because it’s a well-designed, modern car, driven by an older and wealthy (safe) demographic. The assistance systems are probably secondary. They weren’t even standard on all vehicles and they were very primitive in that first generation.

If you actually read the Forbes article above, the back of the napkin math actually DOESN’T indicate that Teslas in autopilot are safer than normal driving. That’s the entire contention. I do not think these full-takeover systems are safer at the present time than active human drivers in comparable vehicles with safety assist systems. Tesla is very clearly fudging the numbers to make it appear as if autopilot is safer, but the claim doesn’t stand up to some really basic analysis.

[sedgjh23]

> What they fail to note is that Autopilot can ONLY be on while driving on a limited access highway.

This isn’t true anymore

[olyjohn]

Tesla does not have self driving. Production Autopilot is not self driving. It's advanced cruise control with lane keeping, nothing that any other manufacturer doesn't offer on their cars. Full self driving doesn't even work, and is acknowledged by Tesla themselves, calling FSD a beta. And FSD can barely even do basic tasks like making an unprotected left turn.

[AndrewKemendo]

>Tesla's self-driving is far safer than human driving: the number of accidents and deaths per mile driven are something like an order of magnitude lower

Still not close to good enough for people to accept:

"Participants from both countries required Self Driving Vehicles to be 4-5 times as safe as Human Driven Vehicles" [0]

0: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32202821/

[minhazm]

It’s already about 10x. But it is a bit tricky since they don’t break the numbers out by highway and local driving. Also their active safety features outside of AP also improve safety. So does it need to be 4-5x better than an already improved system that has AEB and lane departure avoidance and other safety features?

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

> In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

[slg]

There are way too many confounding variables in those numbers for you to directly compare them like you are doing. The biggest being that Autopilot is predominately engaged in situations that are already safer than average driving.

[cscurmudgeon]

> It’s already about 10x.

It is not from your data alone. It maybe, but the data is not from a controlled experiment.

Because:

1. Autopilot disengages in dangerous/ambiguous situations. 2. The set of users with autopilot is different from those without.

[minwcnt5]

Of course autopilot and FSD are safer than unaided human driving. That's because a human is still required to be in ultimate control. They are aids to the human, not replacements for the human.

[harikb]

Illusory superiority [1] will make us think the bad drivers are only those below average drivers. It will take a while for people to truly trust FSD just by accident stats.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority

[rvz]

So all of that 'research' and several FSD crashes later and they have added a new driver monitoring tool in the refreshed line of Tesla Model S Plaid vehicles because even with FSD turned on, you must have your eyes on the road at ALL times whilst driving. [0] Looks like someone made a correct prediction on this technology and it was none other than Comma.ai [1]

I have to give it to Elon that he was able to keep his fans believing a big lie of their FSD system to achieve Level 4 / 5 autonomy last year, when this year it was admittedly Level 2 [2].

The fans will continue to believe his lies and keep on saying "It's coming soon, you'll see..." when they have just been sold a Fools Self Driving System™.

[0] https://twitter.com/Model3Owners/status/1406002366923612163

[1] https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1406304017400012800

[2] https://www.news18.com/news/auto/teslas-full-self-driving-cl...