[minhazm]

It’s already about 10x. But it is a bit tricky since they don’t break the numbers out by highway and local driving. Also their active safety features outside of AP also improve safety. So does it need to be 4-5x better than an already improved system that has AEB and lane departure avoidance and other safety features?

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

> In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

[slg]

There are way too many confounding variables in those numbers for you to directly compare them like you are doing. The biggest being that Autopilot is predominately engaged in situations that are already safer than average driving.

[cscurmudgeon]

> It’s already about 10x.

It is not from your data alone. It maybe, but the data is not from a controlled experiment.

Because:

1. Autopilot disengages in dangerous/ambiguous situations. 2. The set of users with autopilot is different from those without.