[diveanon]

For anyone interested in what this may look like, I highly recommend the book “The Water Knife”.

It focuses on the water rights disputes of a future dystopian US where states fight proxy wars with each other to secure access to water. It’s set in Los Vegas and Arizona as they are coping with a refugee crisis of Floridians and Texans fleeing the impact of climate change.

The author Paola Bacigalupi also wrote “The Windup Girl” set in a post pandemic Bangkok where calories have become the primary currency.

Truly excellent hard sci fi set in the near future.

[sbierwagen]

Windup Girl is not exactly diamond-hard science fiction, since the biopunk genre waves a wand and makes electronics largely go away. Energy storage is done by winding springs with working animals, genetic engineering features prominently, but for aesthetic reasons you never see the words "solar" or "electric motor".

This was plausible-ish in 2009, (At the time the only EV on the road was the obscure and blisteringly expensive Tesla Roadster) but lithium batteries and PV solar are dozens of times cheaper now. Even with oil gone, it would be hard to imagine a Windup Girl future in 2050.

[diveanon]

My understanding of this was that they lost the ability to manufacture semi-conductors during the collapse and that the mining and refining process of rare earths was too energy intensive to be profitable in a resource starved economy.

[sbierwagen]

Sure, but like, coal exists. At our current consumption rate there is centuries of coal still in the ground: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/how-much-coal-is-le...

It would be rather rude to burn it in a post sealevel-rise world, but it is still there. Even after peak oil there would be electricity and heavy industry. It wouldn't be hard to lose advanced semiconductor manufacturing, (A war in Taiwan would do it) but halting production of advanced chips just rewinds us to 1980, not 1600.

PV production is ultra high volume and geographically dispersed. I don't see any way to take it all out without hundreds of EMP bombs or some kind of ultra-solar flare that fries all electronics worldwide.

In which case you wouldn't have genetic engineering. Or cities. What's left of humanity would be in small villages, engaging in subsidence agriculture.

You could set a novel in such a future, but it would be rather monotonous and unpleasant.