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by benohear 1833 days ago
I found this guy's perspective to be useful: https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian

In a nutshell: He views the current situation as the end of a 40 year bull market and predicts a very big market crash in the short term followed by an inflation driven recovery for the next ten years.
1 comments
jesterson 1833 days ago
> He views the current situation as the end of a 40 year bull market and predicts a very big market crash in the short term followed by an inflation driven recovery for the next ten years.

That's what everyone remotely acquaint with money and markets knows. It's just inevitable with the way markets work and human psychology.

The better question would be what is going to trigger the event.

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gls2ro 1833 days ago
If I would do a kind of bet, I would bet that the event which will trigger the market crash will apparently be like nothing real (like Pandemic, natural disaster ...) happened, yet one day the "market" will start selling everything after a normal-like event in the market (a company buying another company, or a corporation selling their division ... or announcing a third quarter loss). And like probably other stuff once the spiral of the market will go down more and more people will start going out, wanting their money back so making the spiral faster and faster.

I think the difference between what I explain and COVID is that COVID can be seen like an external event but we had big hopes we can solve it. So there was not need in the market to react to this long term. Hope made the market rise up very quickly after the first months of 2020.

Of course I am just reading articles on the internet, I don't have any experience in money/markets/financials so I see this mostly as a funny possible situation.

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jesterson 1833 days ago
It's almost impossible to predict this kind of even for a a very simple reason - markets not only react on objective events, but also react on expectations and fear/greed.

One of my favourite simplification is weather forecast - currently feather doesn't depend on our expectations of it and predicting it is already extremely difficult task. Now you can imagine if weather would factor in what we expect it to be - and forecasting would be even more complicated.

That's said, it may be important or unimportant event, however noone has capacity to predict it (although in the hindsight there will be a lot of those who will brag that they had seen it coming).

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techsin101 1833 days ago
That's a nice analogy
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benohear 1833 days ago
Why does that matter?

First, I would imagine that in a fragile market any major piece of bad news could trigger the necessary panic (the Credit Suisse hedge fund story would have been a prime candidate), but it seems impossible to know in advance which one.

Then, I would have thought that if you are wondering what to do with your money the more important thing would be a rough sense of timing (or market level) for the crash and a sense of what assets will do well in the aftermath.

According to David Hunter that level is SP > 4700, which he reckons will be reached in the next few months and in the aftermath equity will perform poorly and commodities will do great.

By the way, if anyone has reasons to believe this is full of shit I'd love to hear them. I'm certainly no financial expert.

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