Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by jcaldas 1859 days ago
Lukashenko will not go down without a fight, and Russia is very unwilling to see a color revolution again next to its borders. Putin dreams of annexing Belarus.

Couple this with the EU's overall weakness and fragmented interests (eg nordstream 2), and it's hard to imagine a good outcome.

A few sanctions will come out of this that will make EU officials look good and further place Belarus into Russian hands (namely, as you wrote, making Belarus airspace dependent on Russian airspace). Let's see what the real leader of the EU has to say.

If the EU can't stand for the people of Belarus, for the sake of freedom and human rights, then it will have once again failed.
2 comments
_0w8t 1859 days ago
It is not that clear that Russia all that happy about the incident. A girlfriend of Roman Protasevich, who is a Russian citizen, was also detained and that already caused PR issues for Kremlin.

Plus there is even comments from Russia’s Duma about how this can be damaging for Russia.

link
varjag 1859 days ago
No, the head propagandists (RT's Simonyan, Solovyev) are ecstatic and can't stop congratulating KGB.
link
piokoch 1859 days ago
Protasevich was tracked in many countries before he entered this plane, tracked by someone doing that very professionally engaging a lot of resources. It is hard to imagine Belarus was doing this alone, without Russia support.
link
proxysna 1859 days ago
No one will stand for Belarus. Sanctions have the effect of running Belarus into Russian\Chinese debt pit even further.

Until the military sides with opposition (it won't) there will be no changes at all. Even if military gets involved, there will be russian "voluteers" (see Russian volunteers in Moldova 90, Balkans 92-01, Chechnya 93, Ukraine 14 ) that are there to help fight new "junta".

And then it will result in Ukraine II: electric boogaloo. Eastern Belarus is de-facto a part of Smolensk oblast' with some Russia funded murderers creating an "independent" republic. This was played out to death over the last 30 years.

And don't get me wrong. All while this will be happening, EU will be very concerned, that is for sure.

None of this will happen ofc, because all resistance will be suppressed with excessive force, at the very start. No trials, no judges.

link